Macroeconomic Analysis Of Singapore For Australian Business Expansion

General Business Environment

Australia successfully does international trade with many foreign countries. Moreover, the country also has many investment partners from where it receives foreign direct investment. However, macroeconomic condition of each trading partner country is not equal. Some enjoys higher GDP growth rate with low unemployment and inflation while some other countries do not. Hence, the report selects Singapore as target country to analyse its macroeconomic condition through considering some major indicators (Surin, Edward Hussin and Ab Wahab 2017).

These indicators are general business environment, economic growth along with business cycle, unemployment and average wage rate. General business environment further considers construction permit, feasibility of property registration, protection of minor investors and trade along with other factors. In addition to this, the report also discusses about human capital, inflation, real interest rate and government expenditure in the economy. Furthermore, domestic credit to private sector, taxation Policy of Singapore, government expenditure on infrastructure and exchange rate regime as well as exchange rate fluctuation can represent macroeconomic condition of this country. With the help of these indicators, the report can understand fiscal condition of this country.

Moreover, the report will discuss about two recent monetary policies of this target country and impact of global financial crisis as well. Each macroeconomic variable is essential to understand the economic scenario of Singapore for foreign countries at the time of establishing business. The report selects electronic industry of Singapore, where the Australian company wants to expand its business (Beatty, Samuelson and Abril 2018). This specific sector expands significantly in Singapore and consequently electronic companies can receive huge advantage to earn profit.

            Singapore is considered as one of the most prosperous countries across the world. The People’s Action Party rules this entire country since independence. The entrepreneurial environment of this country is efficient and transparent. Labour laws permit companies to allow and fire labours freely. However, the market for foreign labour has become difficult due to the approval process of Ministry of Manpower. Trade is an important component to the economy of Singapore. Both exports and imports have contributed significant amount to Singapore’s total national income (Prajogo 2016).

Moreover, non-tariff barriers influence foreign countries to do trade with this country. Hence, the country has open business environment, stable price and comparatively corruption free political environment. Moreover, highest per capita income can indicate that the country economic condition of this country is well established (Cai and Yang 2014). Thus, the report intends to describe these macroeconomic indicators briefly to understand the environment of the business in this country more precisely. Based on these analysis, the CEO of Australian economic country can discuss that whether they can invest in Singapore for long-term or not.

Economic Growth and Business Cycle

General Business Environment:

Singapore is situated in the region of Southeast Asia, which is surrounded by Malaysia and Indonesia. After achieving independence, one of the main goals was to make a hub of international transportation. The country has also become one of the famous places for developing business. While starting a business in Singapore, the individual will also have deal with the construction permits where necessary licenses needs to be obtained, along with safety mechanisms and professional certification requirements (Chiu 2018).

Starting a business will also require to obtain a permanent connection of electricity for the new warehouse. In case of registering a property, a lot of time and cost are involved for registering a property.  Registering a property also involves reliability of infrastructure, equal access to property rights and resolution of land dispute along with transparency of information. In Singapore people usually have to spend smaller amount of money on taxes. Due to the presence of well-organized port and strategic location, Singapore has a very good tax structure for any business organization (POWERS 2018).

The indicator of enforcing contracts measures the time and cost in order to resolve any kind of commercial disputes. Starting a business in Singapore also includes strength of credit reporting system. Doing business examines time and cost which are associated with documentary compliance, domestic transport and border compliance (World Bank. 2018).

Economic Growth and Business cycle:

            The above diagram has represented economic growth of Singapore through applying the growth of gross domestic product, in terms of annual percent. According to this diagram, the growth rate has fluctuated significantly over time since 2000. Initially it decreased and reached to a lower level in 2001 though after this year the rate experienced a sharp increase and remained between 7 percent and 10 percent up to 2007 (Data.worldbank.org. 2018). However, after this year, the rate experienced a drastic fall while in 2010 this rate increased again from a negative economic growth. In the following year, this GDP growth again fell and remained low for the next years until 2017. Hence, this graph states economic growth of this country occurs at a low rate. The chief purpose for this slow economic growth is due to slow growth in manufacturing sector.

            Business cycle represents the fluctuation in production of goods and services within an economy. With the help of movement of real gross domestic product, the economy can measure its business cycle. This cycle has four phases, which are, expansion, peak along with contraction and trough. According to above figure, Singapore is in recession period due to its low economic growth (Krusell, Mukoyama, Rogerson and ?ahin 2017). Thus, aggregate demand of this country will fall and this in turn can force income, employment, price and profit of business to reduce further. Thus, according to this business cycle condition, the economic condition of Singapore is not beneficial for any foreign business companies.

Unemployment

Unemployment

            Unemployment rate of Australia has reduced over the year since 2000. This implies that the economy has generated huge employment opportunity. Thus, it can be said that per capita income of this country is high and every person has higher standard of purchasing power. Lower unemployment rate represents healthy economic condition of the economy while higher unemployment rate represents poor economic condition.

In Singapore, this rate was high during 2000s while over the year it has started to reduce. During 2008-2009, this rate was increased slightly though later it started to fall again (Data.worldbank.org. 2018). Unemployment rate is share of total labour force, which are seeking for a job but remains unable to find one in existing wages. Due to recession, the country has huge chances to experience higher unemployment rate for future. If unemployment exists by large extend in Singapore economy then society, country as well as an individual can incur various costs.

The country can experience this loss in the form of low GDP growth rate, huge public debt and higher payments for those unemployed people (Wong 2018). Society experiences this in the form of labour immigration and illegal activities while an individual can experience it through enjoying lower standard of living. For Singapore, this magnitude of costs is low and consequently the Australian company can get socially stable environment (Unel 2018). Moreover, the economy does not to reach to depression due to comparative positive national income. This situation can insist foreign countries to enter into this market.

Average wage rate

            The average wage rate of Singapore has increased over the year. The figure represents data between 2000 and 2008. During this phase, global financial crisis could not influence the average wage rate of this country and consequently, the rate did not fall. Instead of this, the average wage rate increased at a slower rate (Meng, X., Chin, A. and Grant, B., 2015). Hence, the labour market experienced demand during this phase. Average monthly wages of Singapore has fluctuated continuously over the year though it has followed an increasing trend in recent years (Thangavelu 2016). Higher average wage rate implies that the economy is performing well and the demand for labour is high as well.

Human Capital:

The human capital of Singapore is the most developed in Asia. According to the report published by the World Economic Forum Singapore has been ranked as the top in Asia in case of development of formation of human capital of the World Economic Forum Singapore has be and also makes it the highest placed Asian country (Harvey and Beaverstock 2016). The primary school enrolment in Singapore was reported at 1015 in the year 2016 which was reported by the World Bank Collection of development indicators(Data.worldbank.org. 2018).

Average Wage Rate

Singapore also ranks 11^th with having developed 73 percent of the human capital which makes Singapore the highest places Asian country (Tan, Gopalan, Sharma and Tan 2017). There is presence of four dimensions of human capital present in Singapore, which comprises of knowledge capital, imagination capital, social capital and emotional capital. The workforce of Singapore consists of 3.3 million people comprising a population of 5.18 million people. Singapore also comprised of the worlds highest proportion of high skilled employment (Yeung 2017). Most people working in Singapore are highly skilled and are into expertise-based occupations working in a diversified and complex economy.

Inflation

The rate at which the level of cost of goods and services rise is known as inflation. According to the report of the World Bank Group the rate of inflation in Singapore was 0.58 per cent in the year 2017where the world rate of inflation was 2.17 percent (Data.worldbank.org. 2018). However, it was found out that inflation had only affected a minority of the population. The reason behind this is that Singapore is one of the most prosperous nations and also trade is equally significant for the economy. As a result of inflation savings will be devalued, wages will be decreased as the prices of the property will rise, home owners will have to face with high repayments.

The commercial properties will also start suffering a spill over due to the overheated properties of the residential. Affording a new home will also become difficult (Bhaskaran,  Yahyaand Hao 2016). Therefore, when prices rise, the cost of starting a new business, borrowing money and mortgages becomes quite difficult. Rapid increase in cost affects the purchasing power of the consumeralong with the cost of inventories and materials (CLARK, GHOSH and HANES 2018). As a result, of inflation when the replacement costs of inventory are more than the inventories sold, it can lead to shortages of inventories.

Real Interest rate

The rate of interest which a individual receives after allowing for inflation is termed as the real interest rate. The real interest also can also be calculated by subtracting the nominal interest rate and the rate of inflation. The real interest rate of Singapore is at 4.37 percent in the year 2018. The real interest rate is usually used for in lot of economic theories in order to analyse the capital flight, economic bubbles and business cycle. When there is a presence of high real interest rate, it will result to increase in the demand of credit and the money will therefore move from consumption to savings (Cerutti, Dagher and Dell’Ariccia 2017).

Human Capital

It will also directly affect the business cost of borrowing and the spending of the consumer. Interest rates influence the profits of business along with the business decisions. Decrease in the rate of interest will definitely improve the confidence of the investors. Sometimes also higher interest rates will lead to business, which will have greater returns on their investments (Data.worldbank.org. 2018). A rise in the rate of interest will also translate to higher cost of borrowing. A strengthening US Dollar will also mean the US products in Singapore will also become quite expensive. Companies, which are highly leveraged, will also find the cost of business to be increasing significantly.

Government Expenditures in the Economy

            The government expenditure has fluctuated at a lower rate over the year. Higher final consumption expenditure of government implies increase in aggregate demand, which further brings higher economic growth of the country during short-run. The opposite situation occurs during low government expenditure. This expenditure is a major component of a country’s national income or GDP. These government expenditure policies related to tax adjustment, budget targets, public works and increment of public expenditure could significantly influence economic growth. This public expenditure of the Singapore considers all types of government consumption, transfer payments and investment (Morad, Choong and Tungsanga 2015).

The higher amount of government expenditure in Singapore can influence supply-side of the economy. The government expenditure can influence an economy from various aspects that can help foreign companies to enter and operate their business successfully. These come in the form of welfare benefits, pension expenditure, social activities, infrastructure investment and payments for higher debt interest. Higher investment in infrastructure can increase spending on roads as well as railways and this in turn can reduce the obstacles of product supply. Investment in education and training helps Singapore to make skilled labours.

These available skilled labours can help Australian companies to obtain labour easily. Thus, these facilities provided by Singapore economy may enable the specified Australian company to implement its efficiency in foreign marker (Mo 2018). Figure 6 sharply shows that spending in infrastructure, education and training along with others in Singapore economy has declined initially though it has started to increase in recent years.

Domestic Credit to Private sector

            Domestic credit to private sector implies the amount of financial resources that private sector provide in the form of loans, trade credits and buying of non-equity securities from banks. Hence, high value of this macroeconomic indicator represents a strong economy (Alessi and Detken 2018). According to the data of World Bank, this domestic credit to private sector of Singapore has increased continuously after 2006. During global financial crisis, domestic credit became stable though it did not decline. After 2009, this indicator experienced a significant increase over the year up to 2014. After this year, the rate decreased by small amount though it again started to increase significantly. Hence, Singapore has huge opportunity to develop its private sector.

Inflation

It is crucial to mention that if the private sector possesses greater and bigger role in national economy, then the country can experience better economic health of the economy along with noticeable development. The rate of domestic rate to private sector has remained more than 100 percent (Data.worldbank.org. 2018). This indicates that Singapore has the opportunity to experience high economic growth in future. This is because higher rate of domestic credit allows private sectors to receive finance.

This emerged the economic condition of mixed economy instead of communism. Hence, in general, it can be said that this economic indicator is important to measure the degree of Singapore economy in the context of development and success (Akinci and Olmstead-Rumsey 2018). This is because the indicator represents wellbeing as well as goodness of the private sector as equally important with public sector in Singapore.

            Therefore, from this trend of domestic credit to private sector, it can be said that foreign companies can receive enough funding opportunities in Singapore. As the private sector of Singapore has huge opportunity to develop further in future, this can attract Australian electronic company to establish its business over there.

Taxation Policy in Singapore:

As a result, of well-organized strategic locations and they port system, Singapore has a very good taxation system which is appropriate for the environment in business. The corporate tax system also provides many advantages for the new companies for establishing their business. The income tax of Singapore also comprises of both corporate income tax and the individual income tax where both the corporate income the individual income tax is payable on an annual basis. The main objectives of the taxation policy of Singapore include raising the revenue and promoting economic and social goods (Data.worldbank.org. 2018).

The main tenet of the taxation policy in Singapore is to keep the tax rates competitive in nature for both corporations and individuals. In order to increase the resilience of taxes the government of Singapore introduced Goods and Service Services in the year 1994. Due to its attractive personal and corporate tax rates along with tax relief measures investors come to Singapore for establishing their business. As there is no presence of capital gains, one tier tax system and presence of an extensive double tax treaties investors turn to Singapore for establishing operations. 

There are several types of taxes in Singapore, which includes income tax, property tax (Agarwal and Qian 2017). Customs and excise duties, motor vehicle taxes stamp tax and a lot more. However, in Singapore people usually have to spend a very small amount of money on taxes. One of the additional advantages that the companies in Singapore get is that only the companies accrue zero percent tax rate.

Government Expenditures on Infrastructure:

            The government expenditure of Singapore government is expected to increase between 2017 and 2020 from SGD18.3billion to SGD30 billion. It is also essential to mention that airport, highways of this country are well maintained, and consequently these require repairs hardly compare to other countries across the world (Alm 2015). Hence, increase in government expenditure in infrastructure could improve the recent weak condition of Singapore. The World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report supports this statement. As a result, ranking of Singapore declines to number 5 in 2014-2015 while in 2012-2013 this number was 2 (Murakami 2018).

Public construction acts as one of the largest beneficiary to develop the economic condition of a country. The Building and Construction Authority (BCA) states that public sector construction may expect to increase to $20-24 billion from $15.8 billion between 2016 and 2017. According to the 2017 budget, the Singapore government intended to invest SGD700 million in the public sector infrastructure projects.

The project was scheduled to start in 2017-2018 for supporting the construction sector of the country (Data.worldbank.org. 2018). Hence, the number of public listed construction companies has increased significantly. The transport industry is considered as an important component of infrastructure.  The Changi Airport is considered as one of the best airports of the world. To maintain this busy airport, the Singapore government invests huge amount of money.

            Figure 9 represents that the government expenditure on infrastructure was low during 2011. However, the amount has increased over the year after 2011. However, this expenditure has taken a sharp increase between the financial year of 2014 and 2015. However, after 2015, this expenditure has started to fall though has remained at a higher level (Data.worldbank.org. 2018). From this, it can be said that infrastructure in Singapore has played a vital role to develop the country’s economic condition. Developed infrastructural facilities can attract other countries to establish their business in Singapore with ample amount of facilities.

Exchange rate Regime and its fluctuation:

In case of an exchange rate regime is an individual can manage the currency with respect to other currencies. The foreign exchange rate market is also somewhat or other related to the monetary policy. The effective exchange rate of Singapore in the year 2018 is 113.15. There has been a long-term increase in the real exchange rate of Singapore. The reason behind this is that after the economic development of Singapore and due to transformation of the economy, the per capita income has increased which changed the structure of the economy (Engel 2017).

As a result of rising the real effective exchange rate, there have been a shift in the relative prices between the traded and the non-traded sectors. As a rate of exchange float freely against one another, it means that they are in constant fluctuations. The valuation of currency can be analysed with the inward and outward flows of the currency.  When the demand of particular currency increases, the currency valuation will also increase.

However, in general a high exchange rate is way better. The reason behind this is that when currencies are exchanged people will receive more foreign currency when buying (Bis.org. 2018). A higher rate of exchange will also lift the purchasing power of the currency and a lower exchange rate will lead to rise the export of the country.

Two monetary policies of Singapore in recent year:

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) had chosen the Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate as the target for monetary policy. The exchange rate policy of the MAS is the only effective form of monetary policy in Singapore. Therefore, it can be said that the Monetary Authority of Singapore uses the rate of exchange as one of the target of the monetary policy (Bhaskaran, Yahya and Hao 2016). The reason behind this is that as Singapore is an open as well as a small economy where gross exports and imports of goods are more than three hundred percent of Gross Domestic Product and also almost forty cents of every dollar are spent domestically on imports.

The rate of exchange will have a much stronger influence than the rate of interest. The Monetary and Domestic Markets Management Department is also responsible for implementation of the monetary policies, which comprises of:

• Managing the rate of interest by intervening in the markets of foreign exchange
• Managing the banking system liquidity through money market operations

One of the fundamental objectives of the monetary policy of Singapore is to maintain price stability for sustainable growth of the economy. MAS also operate the managed float regime for the Singapore dollar.

Impact of Global Financial Crisis in Singapore:

            Singapore attained real economic growth and created employment opportunity during 2006 and 2007. However, Singapore was first country, which experienced economic recession due to global financial crisis among all other East Asia in 2008. During this period, productivity of Singapore labour force declined from -0.9 percent to -6.5 percent between 2007 and 2008 (Kocaarslan, Sari and Soytas 2017). Thus, the economy experienced the need of improving productivity of labours to reduce the impact of unemployment. Thus, the number of cyclical unemployed people increased during recession. This happened due to insufficient jobs with similar wages in market.

Due to recession, companies reduced their wages and consequently household consumption reduced due to less income. Moreover, the economy of Singapore depends heavily on exports. The country exports almost more than half of its products to other countries. As the economic condition of partner countries declined due to global financial crisis, economic condition of Singapore declined correspondingly. The recession occurred due to fall of manufactured goods exports, as the economic condition of the US and Europe deteriorated (Claessens and Van Horen 2015).

In addition to this, demand for high technology product also declined in international market. In this context, it is essential to mention that Singapore economy greatly depends on this specified industry. Consequently, exports of this country reduced significantly. During the first quarter of 2009, trade declined sharply by 24 percent. Hence, it can be said that fluctuation of real GDP of Singapore is closely related with the country’s trade.

            Hence, manufacturing industry along with wholesale trade, transport and tourism industries of Singapore experienced negative impacts due to huge job losses during the crisis period. This is because these sectors are directly related with external economic environments (Bénétrix, Lane and Shambaugh 2015). The manufacturing sector contributes significant amount to the national income of Singapore. However, during financial crisis, this sector reduced to 11.5 percent in 2009. The chief reason behind this contraction of demand is decreasing global demand for chemicals, electronics and biomedical product in world market.

Conclusion

            Thus, the entire discussion can be stated briefly in this section. Singapore is a developed country and can attract many foreign companies to do business over there. For this, the report has analysed the present economic condition of Singapore with the help of some major macroeconomic variables. General business environment of this country is better than other countries. This general business environment considers the availability of construction permit and registering property along with some other measurements.

However, economic growth of this country has reduced in recent years. Depending on real GDP growth of Singapore, it is observed that the country is in recession. Thus, according to the concept of business cycle, Singapore can experience depression in future in the form of low GDP growth, low rate of inflation and higher unemployment rate. Thus, depending on the concept of business cycle, it can be said that economic condition of Singapore may become negative for any foreign countries to establish their business. However, unemployment rate of this country is low while average wage rate also increases over the year. This represents that labour market in Singapore is strong.

Labours have sufficient demand in market and consequently firms need to pay higher wages for hiring them. Low inflation rate of Singapore indicates stable and lower price level of this country. The real exchange rate has fluctuated drastically for the last few years. Government expenditure of Singapore remains high, as the government spends higher amount to infrastructure, education and training. This implies that the country has ample amount of skilled workers with developed infrastructural facilities.

            In addition to this, domestic credit private facility of Singapore has increased for the last few years. Hence, the private sector has huge opportunity to develop further with sufficient facilities of financial support. Moreover, positive tax system of Singapore government also helps business sector to develop further. During global financial crisis, Singapore affected significantly due to its international trade relation with other countries.

Economy of this country chiefly depends on exports. As financial crisis adversely affected economic condition of the US and Europe, export of Singapore affected adversely.  Demand of country’s products like electronic products and manufacturing products declined due to global recession. Hence, almost all macroeconomic variables were affected negatively. Consequently, business environment of this country became inappropriate.

            Hence, after discussing the entire macroeconomic scenario of Singapore, it can be stated that the country has positive opportunity for companies to expand further. Recession may occur as an obstacle for the economy. However, other positive factors may help companies to earn profit successfully. To establish a business in foreign countries, it is crucial to analyse the business environment in those countries. Hence, the Australian electronic company has done the same thing. Through analysing all factors, the company can observe that huge facility of skilled workers, developed private sector, higher amount of capital expenditure and proper tax policy in Singapore can help to expand business positively.

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