Globalization and Financial Crisis in the Modern Economy
Discuss about the impact of globalization and financial crisis on the developing countries of the world.
Globalization and financial crisis are a big issue in the modern economy. Both of the events have changed the shapes of many economies in the past few years. As globalization has opened up many opportunities for the all the countries in the world, the global financial crisis that happened during 2007-08 shook the world economy in a widespread manner (Beck, 2015). The mostly affected economies are the developing ones, which do not have the financial strength like the developed countries. According to Hirst, Thompson & Bromley (2015), developing or less developed countries are those, whose industrial base is less developed and have low Human Development Index (HDI).
Globalization is a broad term. It refers to the method of integration and interaction among the citizens, organization and governments of several countries. The process of globalization refers to is driven by the international trade and investment and is supported by the advancement in information technology (Baylis, Owens & Smith, 2017). Globalization has a widespread impact on the political systems, culture, environment, on the economic development and growth, and on the physical well being of the people across the countries. In the modern world, the policies designed by the countries to have cooperation and coordination amongst themselves have led to the wave of globalization. The economies have adopted liberalization policies domestically and internationally. Free market economic systems and technological advancements are the major drivers of globalization (Pieterse, 2015).
As the developing economies have started to enjoy the benefits of globalization in the early 2000, the financial crisis has hit the world economy. It is the worst disaster after the Great Depression of 1929. The crisis was triggered by the fall in the housing prices in the US economy. The realtors did not assume that the homeowners have questionable credit. As the banks allowed people to take 100% or more of the value of the homes, it was difficult to get those money back. The banks broke down along with the US economy and since, it is one of the most powerful economies of the world, the entire global market was affected by the crisis in the US economy and faced a hard hit (Haas & Lelyveld, 2014). The financial institutions across the world started taking stringent measures to prevent further damage of the economies. All the developed as well as developing countries suffered economic disasters and the severity of the downfall was higher in the developing countries as these countries do not have a strong financial infrastructure to back up (Vazquez & Federico, 2015). Each of the developing countries reacted to this crisis in its own way and that gives a lesson to all the countries to be prepared for economic disaster management.
The objective of the research report is to find out the impact of globalization and financial crisis on the developing countries of the world. The globalization has helped the less developed countries to make economic progress with the help of the developed countries. The economic liberalization policies in the international market had opened up many opportunities for development and prosperity of the developing countries (Bénétrix, Lane & Shambaugh, 2015). However, when the financial crisis hit the world economy during 2007-08, the consequences were felt in a massive way in the developing countries. Hence, through this report, the researcher aims to find out the effects of the global financial countries on the developing countries and how these countries handled the impact, that is, the lessons to be learnt from the actions of the developing countries.
The Impact of Globalization on Developing Countries
The scope of this research report is to help the future researchers focus on different aspects of the globalization, financial crisis and impact of those on different countries of the world. Along with that, the lessons from the response of the developing countries to the global financial crisis will be helpful for all countries to be prepared if such disasters occur in future again. This report attempts to highlight the precautionary steps that should be taken by the countries to avoid any further economic complications.
Research approach: This indicates the direction of the research paper, as well as the thought process of the researcher regarding conducting the research. There are two major research approaches, inductive approach and deductive approach. As stated by Ormston et al. (2014), inductive approach deals with exploring a new phenomena and generating a new theory from the research. This approach is about finding out something new. It is associated with mainly qualitative research. The researcher must be free from any preconceived idea while adopting this approach in the research (Creswell, 2014). On the other hand, the deductive approach deals with testing a social phenomena in the light of an already established theory. Based on various literature reviews and theories, the researcher aims to explore the research topic on a new and different perspective and find out the causal relationship among the variables. This approach is majorly associated with quantitative research, but can be applied in qualitative research also. In this research paper, the researcher will be using the deductive approach to explore the impact of the globalization and financial crisis on the developing countries and how they have handled the crisis situation.
Research purpose: This refers to the objectives of the research. The objective of a research report is to explain a topic from a new and different perspective. The two major types of research purposes are explanatory and exploratory. As stated by Lewis (2015), explanatory research is used when the researcher wants to explain the causal relationship among the dependent and independent variables. It helps in explaining the cause and effect of a particular research topic through various events around it. On the other hand, Creswell (2014) states that, exploratory research is used when the researcher has no past information about the research topic. This method helps in gaining an in-sight about the research topic from a new perspective.
Research design: This refers to the strategy of the researcher for conducting the research. In the research design, the researcher frames the way to complete the research in the most appropriate manner. This is the basic plan of the process that the researcher will follow to answer the research questions (Neuman & Robson, 2014). There are several types of research designs, namely, case study, grounded theory, thematic analysis, experiment, ethnography, survey, archival research and action research. One of the major research designs under deductive approach is the thematic analysis. Under this design, the researcher chooses some key themes and analyzes the topic and the corresponding data based on the themes. Thematic research design is helpful for highlighting the features of the topic through various angles. It is the most suitable method of research when the researcher wants to conduct a qualitative study (Ormston et al., 2014). In the present research paper, the researcher will be using the thematic research design to explore the responses of the developing countries to the global economic disaster. The purpose of the research study is to present the lessons from the developing countries during the global financial crisis. For this purpose, thematic analysis would be the most appropriate research strategy.
The Impact of Financial Crisis on Developing Countries
Data collection: In the research studies, two types of data are used generally. Primary data is the data that is collected from research field directly, through interviews and surveys, and secondary data is the data, which is collected from already published sources, such as, official websites, books, magazines, journals, online publications etc. (Beer & Faulkner, 2014). Primary data helps to gain in-sight on the research topic from the people who are directly affected or involved. On the other hand, secondary data helps to validate the results of the analysis of the primary data. In some cases, when the primary data collection is not feasible, the researcher needs to depend on the secondary data to gain an in-sight about the research topic. In the present research topic, the researcher will be collecting secondary data on the globalization and financial crisis and the impact on the developing countries. The measures of the countries will also be explored from various publications.
Data analysis: The procedures for data analysis consist of two major methods, namely, qualitative and quantitative approach. Quantitative approach is most suitable for analyzing the numeric data. On the other hand, categorical and qualitative data is mostly analyzed by using qualitative analysis. In case of secondary qualitative data, the qualitative approach is the most suitable method of analysis. In this research paper, the researcher will be using qualitative thematic analysis approach under the deductive research approach (Sekaran & Bougie, 2016). Since, the topic is based on the impact of financial crisis on the developing countries, qualitative analysis, based on specific themes is the most appropriate method to analyze the findings.
Globalization and the global crisis are analyzed independently and both these topics are of great interest in this era. Globalization is considered as a contemporary of the real world, which has interconnected repercussions with the different levels of human activity such as cultural, political, scientific, economic, technological and ecological. Globalization can also be regarded as one of the important reason for immediate crisis in the world. This global financial crisis has started in United States and other developed countries and with the passage of time, it has spread gradually in other developing countries (Treeck, 2014).
Globalization refers to financial integration, increase in world trade and technological progress. The economic shocks from one country have spread to other countries and financial integration has led to the increasing frequency of these shocks, which has affected the economies of many countries. It can be said that financial globalization has contributed to the development of the financial market because capital has become mobile and there was increase in competition in the financial institutions of different countries and thus there was decline in the interest rate of various countries. The development of information technology is regarded as an important engine of growth and it has played an important role in spreading crisis. It can be said that due to globalization, the flow of financial capital becomes very high due to the widespread adoption of information technology (Anwar et al., 2016). In certain circumstances, the economic situations of different countries have pushed the investors into risky investments. The development of information and communication and the globalization of market have helped in increasing the volume of transactions, which is regarded as a powerful incentive for the emergence of global financial actors. It has been found that some financial companies have dominated the market and this networking has helped in the creation of systematic risk (O’neil, 2015).
Objectives and Scope of the Research Report
The current financial and economic crisis has laid a devastating impact on the economy. The crisis has began in United States and it has shaken the confidence in the globalization process worldwide. It has been found that in the early years of crisis, the government laid priority on the national interests and this proves economic crisis has led to decline in globalization in these countries. The current crisis has affected the different engines of globalization in the recent years from multinational companies, private property, open market and global logistic chain (Mowforth & Munt, 2015). Moreover, the large multinational corporations were put in a position for the identification of government support. The dynamic process of deglobalization and economic globalization has been taking place since 250 years. It can be said that the recent process of global crisis has spread throughout the world and it has helped in transforming the global economy. The developing countries are considered as victims of the crisis, though they did not cause it. The Third World Network (2008) has stated that UN Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific region has registered a period of heightened instability and thus they reduced the growth predictions to a minimal amount. According to the report of IMF (2008), it has been found that there was slow growth in these threshold countries and thus this was because of inflation in these countries (Claessens & Van Horen, 2015). Therefore, borrowing from the foreign countries became expensive and the investors in these countries became more risk conscious. Subsequently, with the passage of time the World Bank and the IMF downgraded the predictions for different countries of Latin America, Asia and Africa. The growth setbacks in these developing countries were higher than the industrialized countries. After comparing the growth potential, it can be said that the developing countries are affected badly by the economic and financial crisis. The United Nation Education Programme has estimated that there is fall in the growth cost to 390 million and thus it has made difficult for the people to survive with such a low amount (Berger, Imbierowicz & Rauch, 2016). There are several Asian countries that are trying to build a healthy government reserves and this has helped in improving the current account position. It can be seen that Latin America is in a much better fiscal and external position compared to the other countries, which was affected by the financial crisis. Moreover, there were many developing and small countries that were in a bad position after facing the challenge. The terms of trade shock were very high in these countries and thus it was projected that it will increase further with the passage of time (Dabla-Norris et al., 2015).
The current financial crisis will affect the developing country in two ways. There might be financial contagion and spillovers in the stock market in many emerging economies. It has been found that the Russian stock market had stopped trading and the Indian stock market plunged drastically. Moreover, the economic downturn in the developed countries is also laying an impact on the developing countries. Growth in China and India has led to increase in imports and thus this has increased the demand for natural resources, oil and copper, which has increased the exports (Nelson & Katzenstein, 2014). Therefore, this will lead to slow down in these two economies and it will have a knock effect on the poor countries. It can also be seen that the remittances on the developing countries will also decline because there will be few economic migrants who are coming from the developed countries in times of recession and low volume of remittances. Moreover, the foreign direct investment in the developing countries especially equity finance is also under pressure and it is also much weaker. It can be said that the banking institutions in the developing countries are also under pressure and they are not able to lend more, which they have done in the past. This will also lower the investment in many countries such as Iceland, Pakistan, Argentina and Ukraine. The aid budget is also under pressure due to the weak position and the debt problem in the country. The capital adequacy ratio of the finance institutions will also be under much pressure and there will be more scope of taking risk. The countries that will be dependent on FDI and DFI finance will have to address the current account problem in the country. Moreover, the countries with sophisticated banking and stock market will have weak regulated market, which is important for securities. Therefore, it can be said that the effect will vary from country to country because of weaker export revenue, lower growth rate and investments, low level of employment and more pressure on the current account balance. This will also have social impact on the economy such as lower growth rate, which will lead to poverty in the economy (Velde, 2012).
Research Approach
Ukraine, the country situated in the Eastern Europe, is one of the developing countries of continental Europe. The HDI ranking of Ukraine is 84 in 2015 (Baker, Bloom & Davis, 2016). However, the land area makes the country largest within the Europe and 46th among the world. During the Soviet Union, Ukraine was the second largest economy, which was largely dependent on the agricultural and industrial component. It followed a planned economy structure while in the Soviet Union, but after the Soviet was dissolved, the country has to move to Europe and has to adopt the market economy structure. This transition pushed a major part of the population into poverty. The economy faced a major down fall and the quality of life fell significantly, making the HDI score go down.
However, the influence of globalization has been somewhat positive for the country. As highlighted by Mearsheimer (2014), due to globalization, the country has become more open to different cultures as well as to different economic and foreign policies. As the level of migration has increased due to higher studies and businesses, the country has started to adopt customs, cultures, and traditions of different countries. Dissolution of the Soviet and emergence of globalization have opened up ways for economic help and cooperation from other developed countries in the world. This is beneficial for Ukraine in terms of innovation and invention (Velde, 2012).
The country suffered in a serious manner at the time of global financial crisis of 2007-08. The immediate influence of the global financial crisis on Ukraine is the sharp devaluation of the currency. The perception of risk has changed as Ukraine, along with other developing countries, was cut off from the global capital markets and/or foreign investment was withdrawn from the market. The sharp decline in the demand for exports also led to a severe economic crisis for Ukraine. The country faced a deep recession as an after effect of global financial crisis. It has been found that, in the European region, Russia and Ukraine were the worst hit countries. The growth of real GDP of Ukraine was around 36% within 2003 and 2008, and in the single year of 2009, the GDP fell by around 15% (Trenin, 2014). Ukraine has been facing challenges due to lack of government measures for curbing the rapid expansion, which resulted in the generation of credit fuelled bubbles in many markets. The inflow of foreign credit into many of the markets of Ukraine developed many expansionary bubbles in many markets, including the real estate and construction market. Rapidly increasing prices and wages, and considerably strong private consumption have triggered the effect of the global financial crisis on Ukraine (Claessens & Van Horen, 2015). Since, the country was highly dependent on the external source of aid and economic assistance, the wave of the economic crisis has a severe impact on the country. The domestic markets of Ukraine faced a sharp decline as the production and export of industrial products reduced, unemployment increased, incomes declined and the banking sector faced crisis due to seizing of finances. The level of private consumption and investment declined significantly leading to economic downturn. The rapid fall in the steel and other heavy industries of Ukraine in 2008 happened due to a fall in the demand for steel products in the international market after the global financial crisis, and fall in the steel price by 35% than the previous year’s (Turko & Mukan, 2013). As the steel industry faced a recession, it led to a fall in the growth of other upstream heavy industries, resulting in a deep economic crisis in Ukraine. In that year, the industrial production fell by almost 21.9% as per the report of State Statistics Committee (Mayhew, 2012). In May 2009, Ukraine faced a currency depreciation of 59.9%, which is highest among all countries (Dadush, Falcao & Ali, 2014).
Research Purpose
The financial crisis in Ukraine is regarded as the potential bankruptcy for many leading banks in Ukraine due to the high level of domestic and foreign indebtedness in many countries. The financial crisis, in particular the Lehman Brother bankruptcy, along with fast decline in the domestic economy has also resulted in a drop in the value of currency, which is against the hard currencies. The global lending in the budding economies has also dried up because the bank lending has entered into restrictive phase. This was also reflected due to the rising risk margin on the credit swaps. There was also unfeasibility of refinancing international loans, which implied that the banks were not able to meet the obligations. The banks, lending to the companies and the individuals, have dried up entirely and hence, there was much pressure in these banks because the individual depositors always tried to withdraw their money (Bodrov, 2014). Therefore, the banking crisis has reinforced further dip in the economy. It was important for Ukraine to get hold of foreign loans so that the financial system intact. This was supported by IMF and thus the agreed standby loans of two years was around US $16 billion which was distributed in the four tranches. The loans, which were gathered, became a financial viewpoint and also a sign of confidence for fulfilling Ukraine’s ability to handle the financial and economic situation. The terms and conditions that were attached to the loans were very tight and they have gradually weakened the economy because the strength of recession was appreciated by the IMF. Moreover, it was also difficult to implement the changes, which was important for IMF. The IMF did not disburse the final trache and there were further negotiations with Ukraine after the election. Moreover, the IMF programme has helps in recapitalization of the banking sector and the smaller private banks must try to deal with it effectively. The estimates has shown that the initial cost of restricting of the private banks has increased to 3% of the GDP, whereas the two major banks in the state represented an addition of 2% to the GDP (Meyfroidt et al., 2016).
There was very little influence on the social impact of this crisis. It has increased the level of unemployment from 6% of the labor force to 10% of the labor force and thus it has laid real effect on the recession (Adarov et al., 2015). These enterprises have increased the workforce by reducing the working hours in the organization and negotiating the wage cut in the organization. The government has also tried to increase the social spending, which was regarded as a partial explanation of the rising government debt, which has provided minimal existence in the economy.
Along with that, the industrialized region of the Eastern Ukraine was mostly hit hard due to a sudden fall in the demand for products and hence, the employment fell and poverty was hit. However, during this time, agricultural sector continued to expand. People, who rented in foreign currency, such as, purchasers of real estate, found themselves in a severe situation as the cost of capital repayments and interest increased considerably and they had to try to sell the asset at a lower cost in the falling market (Velde, 2012).
Research Design
Ukraine has begun the economic recovery during the summer of 2009 when the banking sector started taking stabilizing measures. The demand for steel also faced slight recovery. This implies that the rate of decline slowed down. The industrial output fell at the annual rate of 30.4% in March 2009, declined by 18.4% in September and it turned into marginally positive in November to an annual rate of growth of 7.4% in December 2009 (Mayhew, 2012) (Refer to Appendix 1).
The construction sector started to recover slowly due to changing policy of the banks, and the demand for steel increased. As the steel output has started to increase due to increased demand from the construction sector and price is also increasing due to rising demand, those sectors started recovering too (Trenin, 2014). Agriculture was already expanding. Hence, it is seen that, during the crisis period, only agricultural sector supports the economy and when, an economy wants to recover from the crisis, the emphasis should be put on the heavy industries to push the growth in the economy.
The government of Ukraine has imposed prudent fiscal policy in 2010 to lower the level of government borrowing. During the past governments, the level of deficit was around 1-2% of the total GDP, and in 2008, the fiscal deficit increased to more than 3% in 2008 during the global financial crisis. This task of financing the fiscal deficit is became more difficult at the end of 2009 as the government tried to borrow from Russia and many other countries and from the IMF (Ahmed, Coulibaly & Zlate, 2017).
The level of investment also created problems for the Ukrainian economy. As the public investment became controlled due to the fiscal policies, the private investments also became limited due to the fall in profits of the company and restrictive practices of lending by the banks (Adarov et al., 2015). When the economy fell into the economic crisis, the level of expenditure, savings and investment all fall considerably and contraction of the economy happens.
Ukraine had the hopes high on the increase in the level of net exports. As the hryvnia depreciated, the competitiveness of the exports of Ukraine had increased quite strongly. In the figure below, it is seen that fall in the rate of imports is more than that of the exports. This helped in decreasing the deficit in the balance of trade. It is also found that, in 2008, 40% of the total exports consisted of steel and steel products, while in 2009, 25% of the total exports consisted of food products (Melnyk & Zhavoronkova, 2017). On the other hand, the share of engineering products decreased during this time due to recession in the domestic economy (Refer to Appendix 2).
The economy of Ukraine was heavily dependent on the other countries and IMF for borrowing money for financing the government projects and internal economic development. Hence, as the Ukranian currency, hryvnia, depreciated during the financial crisis, the repayment of these loans became very difficult and this created a heavy burden on the economy. As the government of Ukraine was restricted to borrow from the external sources in the foreign currency, the level of borrowings have reduced after the global financial crisis, but the repayment of foreign loans at a higher rate of interest was left and this had put a downward pressure on the hryvnia (Mayhew, 2012). It is seen that, maximum increase in the foreign debt was due to an increase in the public borrowing from IMF and that in the private sector was declining (Velde, 2012). Hence, it can be said that, the government policies of Ukraine contributed significantly in the downfall of the economic condition by borrowing extensively from the external sources, which created a massive debt burden on the economy after the global financial crisis in 2007-2008 (Refer to Appendix 3).
Ukraine needed to improve the condition of the domestic economy by penetrating in the fast growing markets, at the same time maintaining the trade with the traditional trade partners. Since, steel was the main export product of Ukraine, and the level of competition was increasing as other producers and exporters of steel invested greatly to make the industries more competitive, Ukraine also needed to increase the level of investment in this industry although the country was lacking the finances. The lesson coming out from the chaotic situation of Ukraine is that, political stability in the domestic economy is extremely important for improving the economic environment, as this would attract the foreign investors and partner countries to come forward with the capital investment. Political instability, corruption and turbulent economic conditions of the developing countries often create barriers for the economic assistance coming from the international financial institutions, which became evident after the global financial crisis (Melnyk & Zhavoronkova, 2017).
Conclusion
It can be said from the above research report that, Ukraine crisis has thrown a light on the perception of globalization. The globalization holds the promise of stability, integration, peace and mutual growth and prosperity. However, after the 2008 global financial crisis, experts predicted that the era of integration and cooperation would be ending soon. Although, this situation never came, yet the Ukraine crisis brought the period of de-globalization to the front. The economic crisis showed that during any event of high tension, the major economic powers of the world would use the leverage, gained from independence, as a weapon against the other. Hence, the lessons can be learnt from the actions of a developing country, such as, Ukraine as a measure of the financial crisis. The major lessons that can be learnt from this report are as follows. The countries should be aware of the capital stock and requirements due to the fact that, inadequate capital requirement resulted in insufficiently capitalized financial institutions taking excessive risks. The banks did not have adequate incentives to be engaged in risk taking and inadequate regulatory monitoring actions taken by the regulators led to the global economic downfall. It has also been observed that, although the crisis was triggered in the developed countries, mainly in the USA, the developing countries suffered long term. The developed countries reacted to the global crisis by safeguarding their own banking system.
From the above discussion it can be said that, the excessive amount of public and private borrowing can create a heavy debt on an economy. The level of borrowing should be regulated in order to prevent a heavy damage on the economy during any type of economic crisis. The agricultural sector should always be supported, as there is no pressure of lack of demand and sudden unemployment. To strengthen the backbone of the economy, the industrial sector, especially, the heavy industries should be supported by the government as this can pull the economy from a downward fall by providing more production as well as employment. The developing as well as the developed countries should be able to read the signs of crisis and take actions accordingly by modifying the monetary and fiscal policies. The international capital flows should happen with more transparencies, and the developed countries should not intensify or magnify the economic mess burden they pass on to the developing countries through developmental aids. If the rules had been followed properly, the crisis could have been avoided
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