Critical Assessment Of Forecast And Valuation Of Apple Inc By Yahoo Finance

Critical Assessment of an analyst’s forecast for Apple Inc

Apple Inc, established in 1977 is identified to manufacture, market and design various types of variables, smart phones, accessories and other products globally. It is also associated with offering different types of associated service in terms of selling range of Mac, iPhone, air pod, Macs, wireless headphones, accessories of Apple TV, the products and multipurpose tablets. It further offers various types of subscription services in form of on demand radio station, Apple TV+, magazine service and new subscription. The present corporate governance score as on February 1, 2022 is depicted as 1. Moreover, the decile score of one indicates that there exists a significantly lower risk of corporate governance in the organisation (Finance.yahoo.com. 2022). The purpose of this report is to provide a critical assessment of internal criticism comprising of forecasted approach actually employed by the analysts at Yahoo Finance and external criticism comprising of validity of the techniques used. Along with this, the study has provided revenue forecast and valuation using FCFF. In addition to this, the section of the report has further enumerated the justification for selling, holding or buying of shares of the company. Lastly, the review essay has provided critical review of the methods employed in the forecast and valuation of Apple Inc. and focused on the ways these valuation models can be extended to cope with the strategic issues and the uncertainties faced by the company.

Internal Criticism

The internal criticism has been stated by the forecast of Apple Inc. as performed by the analysts through using earnings history, forecasted earnings, forecasted EPS and forecasted revenue estimate. Therefore, the main approach of the analysts of Apple Inc in forecasting the performance of Apple has been mainly done by emphasising on earnings, EPS and revenue. Based on the earnings history as presented in table 1, we are able to identify how the analysts at Yahoo Finance had estimated that the total estimated EPS (Chutka and Kramarova 2020). This is evident with EPS increasing from 1.01 to 1.242 to 1.89 was a similar note, that actually EPS has been also identified with an increasing trend. This clearly suggests that the forecast made by the analysts at Yahoo Finance has been able to predict an accurate trend in terms of estimating the EPS. Moreover, the actual difference was also below 0.5 (Finance.yahoo.com. 2022).

 

Figure 1: earnings and revenue as presented by the analysts at Yahoo Finance

Earnings History	3/30/2021	6/29/2021	9/29/2021	12/30/2021
EPS Est.	0.99	1.01	1.24	1.89
EPS Actual	1.4	1.3	1.24	2.1
Difference	0.41	0.29	0	0.21
Surprise %	41.40%	28.70%	0.00%	11.10%

Forecasted Earnings Estimate by Yahoo Finance

Table 1: Earnings history as presented by Yahoo Finance

The table 2 has identified the approach used by the analyst at Yahoo Finance to estimate the earnings during 2022 and 2023. Based on the average estimate, the earnings are expected to increase from 6.16 to 6.56. Such an illustration clearly depicts that Apple has the potential of increasing its performance of present earnings and continued into the overall growth and valuation in the future (Vasilaki and Tsakalidis Jr 2019).

Earnings Estimate	Current Qtr. (Mar 2022)	Next Qtr. (Jun 2022)	Current Year (2022)	Next Year (2023)
No. of Analysts	29	28	42	41
Avg. Estimate	1.43	1.25	6.16	6.56
Low Estimate	1.34	1.11	5.83	5.98
High Estimate	1.56	1.4	6.61	7.3
Year Ago EPS	1.4	1.3	5.61	6.16

Table 2: Forecasted earnings estimate by Yahoo Finance

Based on the consensus of EPS as well the previous earnings from individual shares are expected to increase by the fourth quarter of 2021. However, there was also a risk of decrease in the EPS during the first quarter of 2022.

 

Figure 2: Consensus EPS as stated by the analyst at Yahoo Finance

The predictions made by the analyst in terms of overall EPS trend has been further presented in table 3 by the analysts of Yahoo Finance. Based on this analysis, we are able to identify how the current estimate a trend of EPS both as per present value, 30 days ago, 60 days ago and 90 days ago is identified to increase throughout 2022 and 2023. This suggests a favourable growth estimate for Apple Inc., thereby indicating that there is an enormous potential of the company in terms of increasing further earnings in the future (Kurnia and Sitorus 2020).

EPS Trend	Current Qtr. (Mar 2022)	Next Qtr. (Jun 2022)	Current Year (2022)	Next Year (2023)
Current Estimate	1.43	1.25	6.16	6.56
7 Days Ago	1.43	1.25	6.16	6.56
30 Days Ago	1.43	1.24	6.16	6.56
60 Days Ago	1.32	1.18	5.74	6.18
90 Days Ago	1.32	1.18	5.74	6.18
EPS Revisions	Current Qtr. (Mar 2022)	Next Qtr. (Jun 2022)	Current Year (2022)	Next Year (2023)
Up Last 7 Days	1	1	1	N/A
Up Last 30 Days	2	2	6	5
Down Last 7 Days	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Down Last 30 Days	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Growth Estimates	AAPL	Industry	Sector(s)	S&P 500
Current Qtr.	2.10%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Next Qtr.	-3.80%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Current Year	9.80%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Next Year	6.50%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Next 5 Years (per annum)	14.85%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Past 5 Years (per annum)	8.42%	N/A	N/A	N/A

Table 3: Forecasted EPS trend by Yahoo Finance

The estimated revenue at Apple Inc is identified to increase throughout 2022 and 2023 amidst certain tips in Jun 2022. Based on such and it is presented by the experts at Yahoo Finance, we are able to confirm how the forecasted revenue may not be as high as the predicted value in the fourth quarter of 2022 but it is still higher than the current revenue estimate of Quarter 2022 (Finance.yahoo.com 2022). Such an increasing trend among average estimate, low estimate and high estimate of revenue clearly indicates a favourable position of Apple in terms of securing future growth and efficiency. Moreover, such a performance clearly indicates demonstrating higher confidence pertaining to the shareholders. Yahoo Finance as further indicated how the number of analysts is also expected to increase from 2022 to 2023 (Jin 2020). 

Revenue Estimate	Current Qtr. (Mar 2022)	Next Qtr. (Jun 2022)	Current Year (2022)	Next Year (2023)
No. of Analysts	26	25	41	39
Avg. Estimate	94.01B	86.59B	395.96B	418.34B
Low Estimate	90.04B	80.6B	384.52B	396.38B
High Estimate	100.44B	96.55B	408.3B	441.73B
Year Ago Sales	N/A	N/A	365.82B	395.96B
Sales Growth (year/est)	N/A	N/A	8.20%	5.70%

Table 4: Forecasted revenue estimate by Yahoo Finance

The recommendation trends have been presented by the company by using stacked bar chart. In this regard, the recommended trend ranges between decisions that are selling, holding, buying and strongly buying. Based on the overall number of enumerations, we are able to identify how most of the suggestion for a recommendation is based on buying of the shares in the current and next quarter. The decision suggested for buying is based on the revenue forecast (Pomykalski 2019). In addition to this, as a result of some of the trends indicating a significantly high growth of the company such as EPS, there are also exists an increased possibility of recommending the shares for strong buying. Therefore, the analyst at Yahoo Finance has not only used quantitative approach to depicting the relevant percentage growth but also identifying the trends using exploratory analysis through using stacked column charts and Likert rating scale. Therefore, as per the use of stacked column chart in figure 3 analysts have emphasised on buying the stocks of Apple Inc (Smith et al. 2021).

Forecasted EPS Trend by Yahoo Finance

 

Figure 3: Recommendation trends by the analyst at Yahoo Finance

As mentioned previously, the figure 4 debates the use of Likert rating scale. In this regard, the Likert rating scale has use rating from 1 to 5, where 1 indicates stronger foundation for buying and 5 indicates strong recommendation for selling. Based on the use of Likert rating scale, we are able to discern that there is a strong recommendation for buying the stocks of Apple Inc. this is evident with a rating of 1.8, thereby 2 representing a strong opinion on buying the stocks. As per the information is ended in analyst price targets, this is another expert analysis performed by the analysts of Yahoo Finance which clearly discerns that the present share price of the company worth $160.62 is expected to reach as high as $215 in the next financial year (Li 2021a).

 

Figure 4: Recommendation Rating as presented by the analyst at Yahoo Finance

The validity of the models being used in the study can be ensured by how relevant it is related to the EPS, earnings and revenues are based on actual data published in the annual report of Apple Inc in 2020 and 2021. In this aspect, we clearly able to depict that both the quantitative forecast as well as exploratory model presented by the analysts at Yahoo Finance has ensured that all the data are accurate and presented in an interactive manner. Moreover, the decision to selling or buying the stocks has been also been presented at the end of the report. This enumerates how the report is suitable for every investor seeking to invest in the shares of Apple (Chen, Liu and Gong 2021). Some of the other relevant details about the integrity of the analysis has been ensured by emphasising computing the difference between actual and estimated values of EPS. In addition to this, it has also introduced the surprise factor which can be seen as a sensitivity analysis (Horák and Kaisler 2022). The earnings estimate has also ensured the validity in form of calculating both low, high and average estimate of the earnings it can get in 2023. Therefore, it is presented in a holistic understanding of different types of sources of earnings which can be emphasised by Apple. It is worth noting how the values in that it is fitted with the EPS trend has been ensured by computing all types of current estimate, estimate seven days before, estimates, estimate 60 days before and estimate 30 days before. In addition to this, some of the other types of estimates are also evident with how the company has emphasised on current year growth, next year growth and next five-year growth in the EPS (Ormonde 2021).

Forecasted Revenue Estimate by Yahoo Finance

The relevant uncertainties which may be present in the forecast done by Yahoo Finance can be identified in form of the probability of uncertainty in the predictability. In this aspect, the uncertainty is evident with how the predictions made by the model may not be translated into actual results in the long term. This is due to the fact that financial uncertainties are evicted as systematic risk (Bansal 2018. Therefore, such form of risk inherent within the electronics market segment. As a result of such risk being undiversifiable, there is a considerable chance that as a result of the existing volatility in the predictions pertaining to the particular stocks of the company may change over time (Santos 2021). Therefore, systematic risk is not only unpredictable but also impossible for the company and analysts to avoid. In particular, the systematic risk associated with financial crisis or a global pandemic may have a significant impact on the electronics market, thereby influencing the investment risk associated with the investment in the stocks of Apple (Pettas, Lois and Repousis 2019). In this aspect, if an investor seeks to emphasise more on other stocks, he/she may not face the consequences. In addition to this, the factors such as inflation, recession and changes in interest rates can have a significant consequence on shifts in the prediction made associated with EPS, earnings and revenue projections (Kurnia and Sitorus 2020). As a consequence of the undiversifiable systematic risk, then that electronics market is on the verge of being affected which will have a difficult impact on the sales and earnings. Therefore, it is worth noting that the analysts cannot completely overlook the facts which are associated with systematic risk factors and the sudden rise or fall in the share price due to volatility in the market. On the other hand, the investors need to focus more on including a greater number of variations pertaining to the asset classes, real estate, cash and fixed income in order to compensate with the substantial systematic changes. It is worth noting how an increase or decrease in the interest rate may not be favourable or more valuable to an investor. Therefore, in is such a situation the investors can therefore look forward to invest in bonds rather than the stocks of Apple (Vasilaki and Tsakalidis Jr 2019).

The revenue forecast is based on the method of moving average. In this aspect, the overall revenue performance is seen to be favourable for Apple Inc. Is evident from how the revenue will increase from 291525 to 315704 by the end of 2022 (Investor.apple.com 2022).

Recommendation Trends

 

Figure 5: Revenue Forecast of Apple Inc.

In order to compute the valuation of the company using FCFF approach, we have used the CAPM do with the required rate of return. In this manner, the expected of return for Apple is computed as 2.80% (Bloomberg.com. 2020).

a. CAPM
β	0.83
Risk Free Rate (Rf) – US 5-Year Governement Bond Rate	2.15%
Expected market return	2.80%
Required rate of return (Re)	2.69%

Table 5: Computation of required rate of return using CAPM

In addition to this, WACC has been calculated as 2.69%. This is based on all appropriate assumption of corporate tax rate of 21% prevailing in the US (Tradingeconomics.com 2022).

b. Cost of Debt and c. WACC
Re	Cost of equity
Rd	Cost of debt
Equity	Market value of the firm’s equity
Debt	Market value of the firm’s debt
E/V	Percentage of financing that is equity
D/V	Percentage of financing that is debt
TC	Corporate tax rate
Re	2.7%
Interest expense in 2020	$                     2,645
Book value of long-term liabilities in 2021	$               1,62,431
Rd	1.63%
Number of shares outstanding as of September 29, 2020	1,67,01,272
Share Price 30 Sep 2021	5.67
Equity	94696212.24
Debt	$               2,87,912
E/V	0.997
D/V	0.003031159
TC	21%
WACC	2.69%

Table 6: Computation of Cost of Debt and WACC

The table 7 shows the use of income statement and balance sheet which will be required during the FCFF computation.

In table 7 we have finally presented the value in terms of income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement and computation of terminal value using PV of terminal value.

Income Statement
	2021	2020	2019	2018
Sales	365817	274515	260174	265595
Depreciation and Amortization	0	0	0	0
Preopening Expenses	0	0	0	0
Selling, General and Administrative Expenses	152836	104956	98392	101839
Operating cost	43887	38668	34462	30941
Merchandise costs	60	87	422	441
EBIT	109207	67091	65737	72903

Table 7: Information about current and historic income statement of Apple 

Balance Sheet
Assets	2021	2020	2019	2018
Accounts Receivables	26278	16120	22926	23186
Inventory	6580	4061	4106	3956
Gross PPE	119810	112096	95957	90403
Current Assets	1,34,836	1,43,713	162819	131339
Current Liabilities	125481	1,05,392	1,05,718	1,15,929
Working capital	9,355	38,321	57,101	15,410

Table 8: Information about current and historic balance sheet of Apple

Cash Flow Statement
	2021	2020	2019	2018
Capital Expenditure	11085	7309	10495	13313

Cash Flow Statement
	2021	2020	2019	2018
Capital Expenditure	11085	7309	10495	13313

Table 9: Information about cashflow statement of Apple

The final evaluation has been evaluated by using the FCFF model. In this regard, the final model has been able to estimate the equity value per share as $122.78. Despite of this value being lower than the present share price of the company, as per the general rule due to the nature of positive value of equity value per share of FCFF it is recommended for the investors to buy the shares of the company as in the next five years the performance of the company is expected to improve to a substantial degree (Vasilaki and Tsakalidis Jr 2019; Chaparro Pozo 2020).

Apple Inc FCFF
FCFF	(Sales – Fixed cost – Variable Cost – D&A)(1-t)  +D&A + changes in WC – capex
	2022	2023	2024	2025
Period	1	2	3	4
Sales	291525	298008	307466	315704
Tax Rate	21%	21%	21%	21%
Fixed costs	36990	38502	39512	39722
Variable Costs	253	205	151	167
Depreciation and Amortization	0	0	0	0
(Sales – Fixed cost – Variable Cost – D&A)(1-t)	200884	204848	211565	217893
Changes in Working Capital
Variable cost to sales	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Working capital to sales	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
Total changes in Working capital	7,503	7,670	7,913	8,125
Capex
Capital Expenditure to Sales	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03
Capex	8834	9030	9317	9566
(Sales – Fixed cost – Variable Cost – D&A)(1-t)  +D&A + changes in WC – capex
FCFF	199553	203487	210161	216452
Discount Rate (WACC)	2.69%	2.69%	2.69%	2.69%
PV of FCFF	194328	192970	194080	194656
Sum of PV of FCFF	776034

Terminal Value at the end of year 4
Growth in perpetuity method
Long-term growth rate	1.70%
WACC	2.69%
Free cash flow (t+1)	220132
Terminal Value	22259836.25
PV of Terminal Value	20018320

Enterprise Value to Equity Value
Enterprise Value	20794354
Less: Net Debt	287912
Equity Value	20506442
Diluted Outstanding Shares	167013
Equity Value Per Share	122.78

Table 10: Apple valuation using FCFF model

As per the relevant discussions of the revenue projection and valuation performed using absolute model such as FCFF, we are available to identify how the investors should look forward to buy the stocks as in the next couple of years as there is a possibility of sudden increase in the prices. Moreover, the level of positive value of $ 122.78 obtained for the enterprise value to the value of the company, we are able to suggest that the investors can safely buy the stocks in the short haul and hold the stocks in the long haul (Mongardini and Radzikowski 2020; Chaudhari and Ghorpade 2020).

The main method employed for forecasting the valuation of revenue is identified with exploratory analysis based on moving average method. On the other hand, the valuation of the developer shares in performed by using the FCFF model. The exploratory analysis refers to the use of graphical representations and summary statistics to investigate patterns and anomalies in the data (Ghosh et al. 2018). Moreover, the concept of exploratory data analysis as per data analytics methods include the pre-processing the data using such a method in order to implement a more statistically significant model at a later stage. The method of moving average has the ability to capture the overall changes in the data series during a certain time period. In the context of finance, the use of moving average helps analyst for knowing about the relevant changes in the metrics being forecasted as per the yearly increments. In this aspect, an upwardly moving trend as per the moving average indicates upswings in the price momentum. On the other hand, a downward trend clearly suggests that there exists a decline in the value predicted using moving average (Kumar et al. 2019; Singh et al. 2020).

In the present times, the moving average method is widely used for efficiently calculating the financial predictions. Therefore, it is not only identified as a technical analysis but also a branch of investing where the price pattern can be estimated in terms of illnesses and securities. Some of the common types of existence of moving average can be further identified with “moving average (EMA)” where more emphasis is given on the total number of trading days (Mabude et al. 2021). Therefore, in this sort of moving average method, relevance for long-term investors is considerably low. On the other hand, the sort of information is highly demanded by the short-term traders. However, the present study has employed a simple moving average method which is calculated by series of price over the years as per assigned weight. Based on the existing literature as well, this is identified as one of the most effective methods of forecasting future growth and value of the company (Van Rossum 2019; Schaffer, Dobbins and Pearson 2021).

Most important model being used in our study is identified with the use of FCFF which is a type of absolute valuation model implemented for performing valuation of the company. The absolute valuation model is identified as an intrinsic value model implemented in the business which is also referred to as an analysis based on “discounted cash flow (DCF)” and used for the purpose of identifying the financial ability of the company. It is worth mentioning that the absolute medicine model is significantly different from that of relative valuation models as it uses the comparable based on competitors (Yi, Chang, Xingand Chen 2019). On the other hand, the absolute valuation model focuses on protecting future cash flows as per intrinsic worth. Therefore, the use of absolute valuation model as per DCF has been conducive for knowing about the actual financial worth of Apple stock at present. This model is also useful for the investors in deciding whether or not there exists an instance of what valuation of the stocks of the company and decide the current price of the stock accordingly. This role is identified that there exist some challenges in implementing the absolute values analysis it is based on the value adding the appropriate discount rate, accurate growth rate and also predicting the accurate cash flows (Li 2021b; Afonso 2021).

In this regard, the use of “Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF)” illustrate the aggregate value of cash flow pertaining to the operations post consideration of relevant taxes, depreciation, investment and working capital. Therefore, it is also worth noting how FCFF is a profitability measure of the company which calls for reinvestment in expenses (Shang 2021). It is further worth noting how FCFF can be also used for depicting the financial health and know about the actual value of the share price of the company. Therefore, FCFF can be also regarded as one of the most critical indicators of stock value of the company (Smith-Ferguson and Beekman 2020). In this regard, a positive value in FCFF clearly defines that the form has a significant amount of cash even after incurring the expenses. On the other, a negative value of FCFF shows that the company was not able to generate sufficient revenue from its investment activities and costs. For instance, the result of positive FCFF value obtained in our case, we have suggested that the stock is worth investing. Therefore, investors should look forward to buy more of the Apple stock at present (Hørsholt and Kristensen 2021).

It is further worth noting how FCFF is seen as relevant indicator of investors focusing on long-term assets and inventories to look forward to invest for short-term or long-term in the stocks of the company (Geertsema and Lu 2021). In addition to this, the calculation of FCFF for determining the value of the firm has further used operational information for depicting the performance. In this regard, the final calculation has taken into account the relevant cash outflows in form of the reinvestments to cash to grow business and ordinary expenses. Along with this, the total amount of money which is being left as a result of operational expenses is being further able to positively impact the FCFF value (Daly, Hughson and Loutzenhiser 2021).

The main emphasis of valuation has been given on the use of absolute value model. However, it is important to note that absolute valuation can take place both in form of DCF analysis and DDM analysis. In a given case, we have implemented the DCF analysis by computing the FCFF. Moreover, the DCF is relevant for arriving at the PV of the organisation based on the discount rate which equals to the rate of return computed using CAPM. On the other hand, in order to account for relevant strategic issues and uncertainties there is a considerable scope for the analysts in the future to include “Dividend Discount Model (DDM)” (Sutherland 2019). The use of this model will be conducive for providing the relevant details about valuation of the company through taking into consideration the future dividends once the present value of the discounted dividends has been calculated. The overall assumptions of DDM takes into account the future cash flows being generated by the organisation referred to the dividends the consecutive distributed to the stakeholders. Therefore, in mathematical perspective such a method is fairly straightforward and predict the future payment related dividend along with depicting the cost of equity share capital. However, it is worth noting the assumptions may be far from the accurate as there lies an assumption that the equal amount of cash flow dividends may not be always attainable (Paldanius and Kajanus 2021).

Apart from the absolute valuation models, the present strategic issues and uncertainties faced by Apple such as sourcing components, supply chain, manufacturing, distribution chain, customer satisfaction ratings, manufacturing to be zero harm and ability to use the latest chips can be also addressed by permitting cost-based approach. The use of such an approach will be conducive for the company to reveal the relevant particular issues in the business from the scratch and arrive at the current market value (Somers et al. 2019). Therefore, implementation of cost-based approach in the business will help Apple in considering the relevant external market factors as well. Furthermore, this can be depicted as one of the most reliable measures to evaluate the business and minimise errors. Furthermore, the future studies can take into account the use of relative valuation models as well in order to get a better idea of the intrinsic worth as it is often identified that the information is more accurate when relative value analysis is also taken into account (Yao 2018).

Conclusion

As per the findings of critical assessment of Apple Inc, we can identify how the analysts at Yahoo Finance have focused on the performance of the company by emphasising on earnings, EPS and revenue. As a recommendation rating of 1.8, the analyst have suggested investment in the company. The validity of the models being used in the study can be ensured by how relevant it is related to the EPS, earnings and revenues are based on actual data published in the annual report of Apple Inc in 2020 and 2021. Based on the findings of revenue forecast and valuation, the investors should look forward to buy the stocks as in the next couple of years as there is a possibility of sudden increase in the prices. As per the discussions of the review essay on the critical review of the models such as exploratory analysis, moving average and FCFF has been duly stated.

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