Planning And Scheduling For Long-Term Antiseptic Product Production

Project Initiation Document (PID)

This report illustrates the planning and scheduling for the production of a long-term antiseptic product by D.U. Singer Hospital Products Corp. The management of the long-term antiseptic production will fall under Singer’s Antiseptic Division, specifically the division’s Research and Development Group (R & D Group). Mike Richards, the project scientist who developed the product, is the project manager and will be working closely with the following departments to ensure project success: Packaging Task Force, R & D Group; Corporate Engineering; Corporate Purchasing; Hospital Products Manufacturing Group; and Packaged Products Manufacturing Group.

The manufacturing procedures will be in accordance with corporate policies and standards, which includes the following: capital equipment selection and procurement, installation of this equipment and start-up. Additionally, the project will be complete once the manufacturing operations produce 95% of full package products at 80% of full production goal of 10 million liters per year. Further, the long-term antiseptic will also have to comply with regulatory requirements set by the FDA, EPA & OSHA. 

The following analyses were performed by our team to plan and schedule the production of the long-term antiseptic product for Singer. The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), Simulation Analysis, and USM Analysis were performed and utilized to determine the expected project completion time and a 95% confidence project duration. Additionally, Microsoft Office Project Professional (MPP software) was utilized to create graphical displays of the project timeline. 

Overall, our approach to develop the planning and scheduling of the long-term antiseptic product for Singer was comprehensive; it included an introduction to the scheduling and planning process, an evaluation of the data sources, including a presentation of the PID and a WBS, analyses to complete the scheduling/planning, budget, and recommendations for this project.   

It is important to understand the parameters of the project before completing any planning and scheduling analysis. These are defined in the Project Initiation Document (PID). The PID is created during the early stages of the project and provides the foundation for the project. The following subsections outline the PID for the D.U. Singer Hospital Products project. 

The purpose of this document is to provide baseline estimates in the production of long-term antiseptic. This document will help the management understand the  processes involved in the manufacturing and release, as well as help the team members to use this as a reference for decision making during the project life-cycle.

The project’s main objective is to successfully grab a foothold in the market as one of the leading manufacturers of long-term antiseptic drugs as quickly as possible. 

In order to achieve its objective, Mike Richards has been chosen as the Project Manager; he is the project scientist who developed the product. He will be working with other departments to ensure project Success. 

Following criteria should be met in order to consider project successful:

1. Launching the product as quickly as possible. Which means strict adherence to the baseline schedule. 
2. Ability of manufacturing operations to produce 95% of full package products at 80% of full production goal of 10 million liters per year. 
3. End product to be in regulatory compliance with FDA, EPA & OSHA. with fully written manufacturing procedures. 

Mike is expected to consider the project as completed when manufacturing operations can produce 95% yield of fully packaged products at a level of 80% of full production goal of 10 million liters per year.

Overview of Long-Term Antiseptic Production

Although the final product formula is yet to be determined, the majority of the regulatory issues have been resolved. There are no anticipated delays in the approval of the regulatory documents as a letter of approval contingent on final documentation has already been issued. 

Following departments will be participating under Mike Richards as the project manager.  

The purpose of a work breakdown structure (WBS) is to break down the project into manageable components of work/deliverables known as work packages. A WBS is a hierarchical outline of tasks required to complete a project. 

Table X outlines the network details including the durations, predecessors, and successors of the activities for the D.U. Singer Hospital Products Corp project. 

Using the software Microsoft Office Project Professional (MPP software), the project timeline was developed. The following assumptions were made: 

• All of the activities will be completed on time. 
• All work is done on a 5-day per week, 8 hours per day basis, and no holidays were included. 
• The estimated duration for each activity is assumed to be based on a normal distribution. 
• The standard deviation of each activity is assumed to be 20% of the estimated duration.
• The start date of the project is December 10th, 2021. 

• Since the project’s biggest constraint is Time. We do face uncertainty regarding activity D, the time on activity D does not carry any flexibility, any delays in the approval process can cause overall project delays. 
• The project could get affected due to inappropriate quality management. 
• Lack of resource handling strategy could affect the project’s success. 
• Disconnection of Strategic and standard policies of the organizations with the developed project.
• There is a significant risk in not getting delivery of resources within the mentioned time. 
• Request in certain marketplace sectors fluctuates so in place of to reduce the success of the project.
• Failure to approve terms and comprehensive acquisitions.
• Deficiency of funding to shelter relocation charges. 

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) was performed in order to determine the expected project completion time and a 95% confidence project duration.  The Program Evaluation and Review Technique analysis can be found in the attached excel database.

The expected project completion date according to the PERT analysis is based on the critical path duration which is 325 days. The critical path information was utilized in order to determine the duration for which 95% reliability of project completion. The critical path length was determined to be 325 days and the critical path standard deviation was determined to be 65 days. By using the NORM.INV function in Excel with the data mentioned above, the duration for which 95% reliability that the entire project will be completed was calculated. For a probability of completion of 95% the project duration increases by 107 days to be 432 days. 

A simulation analysis was performed in order to determine the expected project completion time and a 95% confidence project duration. The simulation analysis can be found in the attached Excel database. Each of the activities’ estimated duration was assumed to be normally distributed as this was given information. Also, it was given to assume that each activity’s standard deviation was 20% of the estimated duration. For each simulation trial, each activity’s duration was estimated by using the following equation in Excel INT(NORM.INV(RAND(), Expected Duration, Standard Deviation). Then the duration of the critical path was summed to determine the project completion duration for that trial. The simulation analysis was run for 100 trials. The following histogram shows the results of project completion duration for those 100 trials.   

The following table shows the summary of statistics for those 100 trials. The expected project completion duration according to simulation analysis is 320 days. The expected project completion duration and the standard deviation identified in the table were utilized in order to determine the duration for which 95% reliability of project completion. The standard deviation was determined to be 23.4 days. By using the NORM.INV function in Excel with the data mentioned above, the duration of which 95% reliability that the entire project will be completed was calculated. For a probability of completion of 95% the project increases by 39 days to be 358 days. 

The Unified Scheduling Method created by George Washington University’s professors, Dr. Homayoun Khamooshi and Dr. Denis Cioffi was utilized to determine the expected project completion time and the 95% confidence project duration. USM allows project managers to create a dynamic, right-sized schedule reserve that is tied to the reliability of the task duration estimates in a project schedule, and that corresponds to the need for schedule safety by the project manager and sponsor. The USM analysis can be found in the attached Excel database. In order to complete the USM analysis the critical path information was utilized. 

Based on the expected time of each critical path activity, the duration of the project is 325 days. It was given to assume that each activity’s standard deviation was 20% of the estimated duration. In order to determine the max duration of the critical activities, the expected duration of each activity was added to three times the activity’s standard deviation. It was assumed that the reliability of each of the critical path activities’ expected duration was 90%. Therefore, each critical activity has a 10% chance of failure. The error for each critical activity was calculated by taking the difference between the max duration and the expected duration. The average chance of failure among the critical activities is 10%. It was found that in order to have a 95% confidence in the project duration two critical activities are likely to fail. This was found by using the following equation in Excel BINOM.DIST(2,9,0.1, TRUE). It was determined that the two critical activities likely to fail would be the two with the greatest error which are the activities I and K. For a probability of completion of 95% the project increases by 78 days to be 403 days.  

PERT 

• Pros
• Cons 

Simulation 

• Pros 
• Cons 

USM 

• Pros 
• Cons  

Overall project budget at Year 1 = $4,330,000

Recurring cost (yearly) = $50,000 (with 11% discount rate estimated) 

NPV after Year 5 = $7,835,546

ROI after Year 5 = 175% 

Break-even = Year 2

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