Abstract of paper to be provided at theRoyal Swedish Academy of Sciences global energy seminar, Energy2050, to be hung on 19-20 October 2009 Fossil fuels are finite resources. In various areas of the world we see that production reached an optimum and after that declined. Recently we take in around 85 million barrels of oil each day (mb/d) or 31 billion barrels annually. If we compare this with BP’s price quote of the world’s reserves of 1240 billion barrels this is comparable to consistent usage at today’s level for 40 years, i.
e. until 2050. A constant level of global oil production is not practical due to the physical criteria of oilfields. Instead, we can expect a future maximum of production, Peak Oil, followed by declining production.
see more:< a href =”/ what-life-will-be-in-2050-essay” title=”paragraph on environment for asl
” > paragraph on environment for asl Today, oil is the raw product for the fuel for aircraft, guest cars and trucks, busses, trucks, ships and so on.
For the last 40 years the oil requirements of our transport modes have constant increased. Throughout the coming 40 years the quantities of fossil fuels utilized for transport should be decreased. The political will for this will be evaluated in Copenhagen later on this year, however more crucial is that minimal oil resources will limit the production of oil. Peak Oil will be the politicians’ friend when it pertains to lowering CO2 emissions. The IPCC emission circumstances are based on inaccurate assumptions of nonrenewable fuel source resources and are, therefore, exaggerated.
Future oil production can be divided into six fractions;
1) petroleum from presently producing fields, 2) crude oil from fields yet to be established, 3) petroleum from fields yet to be discovered, 4) unrefined oil from enhanced healing, 5) non-conventional oil production and lastly 6) natural gas liquids. According to the International Energy Firm (IEA) publication World Energy Outlook 2008 these will constitute an overall of 106 mb/d in the year 2030, an increase of more than 20 mb/d compared with today’s production. A production volume for 2050 is not offered. A logical analysis by the Uppsala Global Energy Systems group yields that by 2030 crude oil from presently producing fields will have declined by 50 mb/d. In 2050 production from these fields will be only a small fraction of today’s volume. The “to be developed” production fraction consists of small fields compared with today’s giant oil fields.
By 2050 this fraction will make only a marginal contribution to total volumes. Discovery rate has declined every decade since the 1960s and the fields found are smaller and smaller. If new fields, with reserves equivalent to what the North Sea had, are in production in 2050 we can expect them to produce 6 mb/d. Non-conventional oil production might be the largest fraction in 2050 with an estimated volume of 6 to 8 mb/d. In 2030 we estimate that total oil production will be 10 to 15 mb/d less then today (i.e. ~70 to 75 mb/d). By 2050, depending on enhanced recovery, total production can be around 50 million barrels per day. Production of fossil fuels is limited by physical and economic factors.
We see that the fraction of the reserves that can be extracted annually is limited. When examining coal we see that mining has never produced more than 4% of the reserves in one year. Can an increase in coal use for conversion to liquid fuel combined with CCS be a future alternative for powering vehicle transport or should we turn to greater use of natural gas? In 500BC Confucius said, “Study the past if you would define the future”. Using our knowledge of the history of fossil fuel discovery and production we can estimate fossil fuel production for vehicles 40 years into the future – until 2050.
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