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This spreadsheet supports the STUDENT analysis of the case “Sanofi-Aventis’s Tender Offer for Genzyme” (UVA-F-1716).
This spreadsheet was prepared by Dmitriy Aleyev (MBA ’14) and Chong Xu (MBA ’14), under the supervision of Kenneth M. Eades, Professor of Business Administration; and Pedro Matos, Associate Professor of Business Administration. Copyright © 2014 by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, VA. All rights reserved. For customer service inquiries, send an e-mail tosales@dardenbusinesspublishing.com. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, posted to the Internet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of the Darden School Foundation.
Oct. 22, 2014
Exhibit 2
GENZ 1
Exhibit 13
Exhibit 13
SANOFI-AVENTIS’S TENDER OFFER FOR GENZYME
Genzyme—Financial Data for Market Comparables as of Year-End 2009
Genzyme (GENZ) Amgen (AMGN) Biogen (BIIB) Celgene (CELG) Gilead (GILD) Life Tech (LIFE)
Revenues $4,516 $14,642 $3,153 $2,567 $7,011 $3,280
EBIT $504 $5,506 $1,295 $842 $3,529 $386
EBITDA $770 $6,555 $2,013 $1,003 $3,742 $928
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.1% 44.8% 63.8% 39.1% 53.4% 28.3%
Net Income $422 $4,605 $977 $777 $2,626 $145
Net Income Margin 9.3% 31.5% 31.0% 30.3% 37.5% 4.4%
Weighted Avg. Shares (in millions) 268 1,016 287 459 905 176
EPS (Basic) $1.57 $4.53 $3.40 $1.69 $2.90 $0.82
Stock Price $49.0 $56.6 $53.5 $27.8 $21.6 $52.2
Equity (Market Cap) $13,159 $57,475 $15,371 $12,779 $19,584 $9,191
P/E (Trailing) 31.2× 12.5× 15.7× 16.4× 7.5× 63.4×
Beta (Value Line) 0.70 0.65 0.75 0.80 0.65 0.80
Debt (Interest Bearing) $124 $10,601 $1,100 $0 $1,161 $3,102
Equity $7,684 $22,667 $6,262 $4,395 $6,505 $4,027
Debt/Equity 1.6% 46.8% 17.6% 0.0% 17.8% 77.0%
Debt/Market Cap 0.9% 18.4% 7.2% 0.0% 5.9% 33.8%
Interest Expense ($18) $578 $0 $2 $28 $188
EBITDA/Interest Expense NA 11.3 NA 501.5 133.6 4.9
Long-Term Debt Rating (S&P) A− A+ BBB+ BBB+ A− BBB
Enterprise Value (EV) $13,283 $68,076 $16,471 $12,779 $20,745 $12,293
EV/EBITDA 17.3× 10.4× 8.2× 12.7× 5.5× 13.2×
EV/Sales 2.9× 4.6× 5.2× 5.0× 3.0× 3.7×
Data sources: Company 10-K filings, CapitalIQ, Bloomberg, Value Line, Standard & Poor’s, GEO Investing.
Exhibit 17
SANOFI-AVENTIS’S TENDER OFFER FOR GENZYME
Genzyme—Financial Forecasts (Management Scenario) in Millions of U.S. Dollars
Reported Actual Projected
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revenue sources
Personalized Genetic Health $1,850.0 $1,757.5 $2,284.8 $2,513.2 $3,015.9 $3,468.3 $3,815.1
% Growth -5% 30% 10% 20% 15% 10%
Renal and Endocrinology $1,008.0 $1,058.4 $1,111.3 $1,166.9 $1,225.2 $980.2 $784.1
% Growth 5% 5% 5% 5% -20% -20%
Biosurgery $513.7 $590.8 $679.4 $781.3 $976.6 $1,171.9 $1,347.7
% Growth 15% 15% 15% 25% 20% 15%
Hematology and Oncology $509.8 $688.2 $929.1 $1,254.3 $1,630.6 $2,038.2 $2,445.9
% Growth 35% 35% 35% 30% 25% 20%
Other $29.1 $20.4 $21.4 $22.0 $22.7 $23.4 $24.1
% Growth -30% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Pipeline (probability adjusted) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $25.0 $500.0 $1,100.0 $1,500.0
% Growth 1900% 120% 75%
Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! $4,076.7 $4,115.5 $5,026.8 $5,763.4 $7,371.8 $8,782.4 $9,917.2
% Growth – ERROR:#REF! 1% 22% 15% 28% 19% 13%
COGS ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! ($1,386.1) ($1,316.9) ($1,533.2) ($1,671.4) ($2,027.2) ($2,283.4) ($2,578.5)
% of Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 34% 32.0% 30.5% 29.0% 27.5% 26.0% 26.0%
Gross Profit ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! $2,690.6 $2,798.5 $3,493.7 $4,092.0 $5,344.6 $6,499.0 $7,338.7
% Gross Margin ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 66% 68% 70% 71% 73% 74% 74%
General & Administrative ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! ($1,428.6) ($1,337.5) ($1,558.3) ($1,786.7) ($2,285.3) ($2,722.5) ($3,074.3)
% of Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 35% 33% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31%
R&D ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! ($865.3) ($864.2) ($1,055.6) ($1,210.3) ($1,548.1) ($1,844.3) ($2,082.6)
% of Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21%
Service and R&D Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! $438.9 $411.5 $502.7 $576.3 $737.2 $878.2 $991.7
ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
EBITDA $835.6 $1,008.3 $1,382.4 $1,671.4 $2,248.4 $2,810.4 $3,173.5
Depreciation & Amortization ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! ($266.3) ($288.1) ($351.9) ($403.4) ($516.0) ($614.8) ($694.2)
% of Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Other Expenses ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! ($65.6) ($205.8) ($50.3) ($57.6) ($73.7) $0.0 $0.0
% of Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 2% 5% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Operating Income (EBIT) ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! $503.7 $514.4 $980.2 $1,210.3 $1,658.7 $2,195.6 $2,479.3
% EBIT Margin ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 12% 13% 20% 21% 23% 25% 25%
Taxes ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! ($121.4) ($180.1) ($343.1) ($423.6) ($580.5) ($768.5) ($867.8)
% Tax rate ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
NOPAT (Net Op Profit After Tax) ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! $382.3 $334.4 $637.2 $786.7 $1,078.1 $1,427.1 $1,611.5
Source: Analyst reports and case writer estimates.
Exhibit 18
SANOFI-AVENTIS’S TENDER OFFER FOR GENZYME
Genzyme—Financial Forecasts (Market Scenario) in Millions of U.S. Dollars
Reported Projected
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Revenue sources
Personalized Genetic Health $1,850.0 $1,665.0 $2,164.5 $2,489.2 $2,787.9 $3,122.4 $3,497.1
% Growth -10.0% 30.0% 15.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%
Renal and Endocrinology $1,008.0 $1,038.2 $1,069.4 $1,101.5 $1,134.5 $850.9 $595.6
% Growth 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% -25.0% -30.0%
Biosurgery $513.7 $590.8 $679.4 $781.3 $898.5 $1,033.2 $1,157.2
% Growth 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 12.0%
Hematology and Oncology $509.8 $688.2 $894.7 $1,118.4 $1,342.0 $1,543.4 $1,774.9
% Growth 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0%
Other $29.1 $20.4 $21.0 $21.6 $22.3 $22.9 $23.6
% Growth -30.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Pipeline (probability adjusted) $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $20.0 $70.0 $220.0 $300.0
% Growth 250.0% 214.3% 75.0%
Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! $4,076.7 $4,002.7 $4,829.7 $5,532.5 $6,255.7 $6,793.0 $7,348.5
% Growth – ERROR:#REF! -2% 21% 15% 13% 9% 8%
COGS ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! ($1,386.1) ($1,280.9) ($1,473.1) ($1,604.4) ($1,720.3) ($1,766.2) ($1,910.6)
% of Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 34% 32.0% 30.5% 29.0% 27.5% 26.0% 26.0%
Gross Profit ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! $2,690.6 $2,721.9 $3,356.7 $3,928.1 $4,535.4 $5,026.8 $5,437.9
% Gross Margin ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 66% 68% 70% 71% 73% 74% 74%
General & Administrative ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! ($1,428.6) ($1,300.9) ($1,497.2) ($1,632.1) ($1,845.4) ($2,003.9) ($2,167.8)
% of Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 35.0% 32.5% 31.0% 29.5% 29.5% 29.5% 29.5%
R&D ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! ($865.3) ($840.6) ($1,014.2) ($1,161.8) ($1,313.7) ($1,426.5) ($1,543.2)
% of Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21%
Service and R&D Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! $438.9 $400.3 $483.0 $553.3 $625.6 $679.3 $734.9
% of Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 11% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
EBITDA $835.6 $980.7 $1,328.2 $1,687.4 $2,001.8 $2,275.7 $2,461.8
Depreciation & Amortization ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! ($266.3) ($280.2) ($338.1) ($387.3) ($437.9) ($475.5) ($514.4)
% of Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Other Expenses ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! ($65.6) ($200.1) ($48.3) ($55.3) ($62.6) $0.0 $0.0
% of Revenues ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 2% 5% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Operating Income (EBIT) ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! $503.7 $500.3 $941.8 $1,244.8 $1,501.4 $1,800.2 $1,947.4
% EBIT Margin ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 12% 13% 20% 23% 24% 27% 27%
Taxes ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! ($121.4) ($175.1) ($329.6) ($435.7) ($525.5) ($630.1) ($681.6)
% Tax rate ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35%
NOPAT (Net Op Profit After Tax) ERROR:#REF! ERROR:#REF! $382.3 $325.2 $612.2 $809.1 $975.9 $1,170.1 $1,265.8
Source: Analyst reports and case writer estimates.