Forecasting Financial Performance And Business Valuation Of Tassal Group Limited

Subject Learning Objectives

Introduction:

Evaluating the worth of an organization is one of the crucial parts of an organization. It is a systematic process which is conducted by the professionals and the financial officer of the company to evaluate the exact worth and the capitalization of the company. It evaluates the financial items and the value of the company to generate an idea about the overall price and worth of the company. This process is used when an organization is trying to buy a company or sell their company. This process is also useful to measure the investment position of the company (Ward, 2012).  investors who are looking for long term investment, takes the help of business valuation method to analyze that whether the firm would offer great returns to the investors or not.

Tassal group limited is an Australian company which is operating its business through various subsidiary companies. The company mainly engages in the farming, hatching, selling, processing and marketing Atlantic salmon in Australian market. The main product of the company, Atlantic salmon, is sold by the company in various categories such as canned, smoked, fresh and frozen. The name of the brands of the company is Tassal superior gold, De Costi Seafood, Tasmanian smokehouse etc through its wholesale and retail channels.

Forecasting is a process which projects the future performance and position of the company on the basis of the historical data of the company (Weston and Brigham, 2015). the forecasting process measures the changes into the final financial statement of the company in last few years and on the basis of that, it is measured that what changes would take place in the company in upcoming years. In the report, the forecasting has been done on the basis of the income statement, statement of financial position and the cash flow statement of the company to measure that what are the upcoming changes into the financial items in the upcoming years.

The forecasting process has mainly be done on the sales growth, profit margin, asset turnover ratio, cost of equity, dividend payout, cost of debt etc. the forecasting of these item have been done on the basis of the last 5 years financial performance and position of Tassal Group. The focus has been done on each activity as every activity mainly affects on the total worth of the company. In case of Tassal group plc, it has been evaluated that the performance and the position of the company is continuously enhancing. The stock price of the company has also been enhanced from $ 1.94 to $ 4.10 from 30 June 2013 to 2^nd June 2018 (Yahoo Finance, 2018). The changes into the financial strategies and plans are the main reasons behind this increment. Few reasons behind the forecasting have been explained in the appendix.

Business Valuation Process

Sales growth is a key term which is used by the professionals to measure the increment in the sales amount of the company in next year. Tassal group limited’s sales growth has been calculated on the basis of the last 5 years sales amount of the company and it has been measured that the sales growth of the company is quite competitive. The sales amount of the company has been enhanced by 4.75% in 2017 and the current trends explain that in future the sales growth of the company would be improved. The better economical position, lower interest rate, higher demand in market is few reasons behind robust sales of the company (Madhura, 2014).

The Bloomberg (2018) report explains that the industry is the major player behind the better sales amount of the company. The average sales growth of the company in last 5 years is 14.79% which explains that the sales of the company have became more competitive in last 5 years. The by product revenue of the company is lower. The main focus of the company is on the main products of the company which is rising continuously.

Annual report (2017) of the company explains that the domestic market demand and international market demand has been increased in last few years due to which the total revenue of the company has also been improved. The total sales volume of the company has been lowered in 2017 but the higher sales rate has improved the overall sales of the company. The company has improved the marketing cost to enhance the sales amount of the company which explained about positive relation among the marketing cost and total sales amount of the company.

Figure 1: sales growth rate

The figure 1 of sales growth rate explains that the sales growth of the company would be enhanced in next 5 years by an incremental rate. However, it has been estimated that the growth rate of the company would be lower in 2021 by 0.25% due to the changes into the economical performance and the marketing graph of the company (Weaver, Weston and Weaver, 2001). However, the continuous growth in the policies and the strategies of the company are better base for the company to enjoy the sales growth.

Figure 2: Sales forecast

The figure 2 explains that the sales of the company would increase by a great level and it would improve the future financial performance of the company.

Industry and Strategy Analysis

Asset turnover is a key term which is used by the professionals to measure the changes into the overall resources of the company on the basis of the total sales. Tassal group limited’s asset turnover ratio has been calculated on the basis of the forecasted sales and the increment rate in the total assets of the company. The evaluation on asset turnover ratio of the company explains that the average assets turnover of the company would be improved from the last year performance of the company in next 5 years. The asset turnover ratio of the company has been enhanced by 0.44 in 2017 and the current trends explain that in future the asset turnover ratio of the company would be improved more. The stable position, better financial policies etc are few reasons behind robust asset turnover ratio of the company.

The annual report (2017) explains that the company has tried to maintain a better long term and short term financial obligation which has helped the company to maintain an asset turnover of 0.70. The average asset turnover ratio of the company is 0.70 in last 5 years and thus, it has been estimated that the performance and the overall resources of the company would be improved by 0.70 in context with the sales of the company (Kruth, 2013). The asset turnover of the company explains that the ATO of the company was lower in 2017 but the continuous improvement of the company would enhance the overall performance of the company.

Annual report (2017) of the company explains that the few new changes have been done by the financial managers and the chief financial officer of the company to manage the better relationship among the available resources and the sales of the company.

Figure 3: Forecasted ATO

The figure 3 of assets turnover ratio explains that the relationship among the assets and the sales of the company would be enhanced in next 5 years by an incremental rate (Lee and Lee, 2006). However, it has been estimated that the level of the resources would be reduced by the company on the basis of the turnover ratio so that the liquidity and solvency position of the company could be managed.

Profit margin is a performance and financial key term which is used by the professionals to measure the total profit which has been generated by the company against the total revenue of the company. Tassal group limited’s profit margin ratio has been calculated on the basis of the forecasted sales and the forecasted profitability ratio of the company. The evaluation on profit margin ratio of the company explains that the average profitability margin ratio the company has been quite better in last 5 years (Lumby and Jones, 2007). The profitability position of the company was quite competitive. If the last 5 years profitability margin ratio of the company is measured than the average profitability ratio of the company is 72.34%.

Accounting Analysis

The profit margin ratio of the company has been compared with the competitors companies and it has been evaluated that the profitability margin of the company is quite better in the industry. The stable position, changes into the sales price, sales volume, financial policies etc have impacted on the profitability margin of the company (lord, 2007). The investment into the marketing campaign and the research and development department of the company has been improved.  Further, it has also been evaluated that the changes into the depreciation and other expenses have also improved the profitability level of the company.

The annual report (2017) explains that the company has tried to maintain a better profitability position in last 5 years which has helped the company to maintain a competitive state in the market. The average profitability ratio of the company is 72.34% in last 5 years and thus, it has been estimated that the performance and the profitability position of the company have been improved by 72.34% in context with the sales of the company (Kinsky, 2011). The profitability margin ratio of the company explains that the enhanced sales have positively impacted on the total profitability amount of the company.  

Annual report (2017) of the company explains that the few new changes have been done by the financial managers and the chief financial officer of the company to manage the better relationship among the total profit and the sales of the company.

Figure 4: profitability margin

The figure 4 of profitability margin explains that the relationship among the profits and the sales of the company would be enhanced in next 5 years by a stable rate. However, it has also been found that the average profitability rate is lower than the current profitability rate of the company.

Net dividend payout ratio of Tassal Group limited has been calculated on the basis of the net profit after tax and the dividends of the company. Tassal group limited’s dividend payout ratio has been calculated on the basis of the forecasted profitability position and the forecasted dividend amount of the company (Krantz, 2016). The evaluation on net dividend payout ratio of the company explains that the net dividend payout ratio of the company has been quite better in last 5 years. The net dividend payout ratio of the company was quite competitive. The last 5 years net dividend payout ratio of the company is measured and it has been found that in future, the dividend amount would be enhanced in next 5 years.  

Financial Analysis

The net dividend payout ratio of the company has been calculated through measuring the forecasted profitability margin and the dividend amount of the company. The stable position, better performance in the industry, changes into the sales price, better stick performance, higher profits, financial policies etc have impacted on the net dividend payout ratio of the company. The market and stock position has helped the company to improve the dividend position (Moles, Parrino and Kidwekk, 2011).

The annual report (2017) explains that the company has tried to maintain a better investment position in last 5 years which has helped the company to maintain a competitive state in the stock market. The average dividend ratio of the company is 38.9% in last 5 years.  The dividend amount is mostly given by the companies to attract the investors more towards the investment into the company. It is one of the most crucial motivational factors for the investors of the company.  

Annual report (2017) of the company explains that the company is focusing on the relevant dividend policies which explain that an organization should offer a huge amount as dividend to shareholders for enhancing the stock price and the capitalization of the company.

Cost of debt explains about the total cost which is incurred in an organization against the total debt amount of the company. It explains that how much amount would have to pay to the company to the debt holders of the company against their investment amount. Basically, a question rises in the mine of a person that why an organization rise the funds from the debt and not from the equity to save the cost of the company. Well, equity capital also demands for the cost (Kisnky, 2011).

The cost of debt is the interest amount which is given by the company as fixed interest % to the debt holders of the company. The cost of debt of an organization is calculated after deducting the tax expenses of the company. The cost of debt of the company explains about higher increment in the debt expenses of the company. The changes would take place due t higher debt amount in the market in different interest rates.  The debt amount of Tassal group limited explains that the cost of the company would also be improved in near future which would impact on the overall financial performance if the company and thus it is suggested to the company to invest the amount in those projects and the places from where higher return could be achieved (Schlichting, 2013).

Prospective Analysis

Figure 5: Cost of debt

Cost of equity explains about the total cost which is incurred in an organization against the total equity amount of the company. It explains that how much amount would have to pay to the company to the share holders of the company against their investment amount. Basically, a question rises in the mind of a person that why an organization has to pay the amount to the equity holders? Well, equity investors also expect some part of the profits of the company which is given by the capital as dividend amount (Kaplan and Atkinson, 2015).

The cost of equity is the dividend amount which is given by the company as dividend amount to the shareholders of the company. The cost of equity of an organization is calculated after considering the risk free rate of country, market return and the volatility of the stock. The cost of equity of the company explains about great changes in the equity expenses of the company (Higgins, 2012). The cost of equity position of the company explains that the economical and market factors are quite changing in nature which would impact on the overall cost of equity of the company.

Figure 6: Cost of equity

Valuation is a procedure to identify the total worth of an organization. The process is conducted on the company to determine the company’s fair value. The valuation of an organization is subjective in nature. The value of an organization could be calculated on the basis of the various models. In this report, following valuation model has been applied:

• Discounted dividend model (DDM)
• Residual income model
• Residual operating income model
• Free cash flow (Hillier, Grinblatt and Titman, 2011)

The valuation model explains that the book value and market value of the company is always different from the real value of the company. The book capitalization is the total value which is stated in the final accounts of the company. On the other hand, market valuations briefs about the market value and total number of outstanding shares of the company. As on 30^th June 2017, the market capitalization of stock price of the company was $ 639.6 million.

In case of evaluating the forecasted future performance and position of an organization, it become simple and easier for the user to evaluate the present value of the factors first to reach over a better idea. Such as, in case of DDM model and residual income model, cost of equity has been used to measure the present value of the financial figures. The cost of equity has been calculated on the basis of the risk free rate of country, market return and the volatility of the stock. On the basis of the evaluation, it has been recognized that the risk free rate of the country is 2.33% in 5 years and 2.70% in 10 years. The market return of the company has been assumed on the basis of the economical position and it has been found that the market return would be around 7 to 8% (Higgins, 2012). The beta (volatility in the stock price) of the company has been measured on the basis of the various analyst reports and it has been found that the cost of equity of the company is 4.99%, 6.32% and 8.78% (The wall street journal, 2018). The average cost of equity of the company is 6.70%.

Application of Forecasted Financial Statements

For residual income model and free cash flow model, WACC (weighted average cost of capital) has been calculated. This model focuses on the equity and debt amount of the company to calculate the overall cost of capital of the company. The book value of the company explains that the debt and equity weight of the company is 13.64% and 86.36%. And the cost of debt and cost of equity of the company is 4.99% and 8.78% (Bloomberg, 2018). The WACC of the company is 8.34%. The WACC of the company is quite higher due to cost of equity of the company.

Dividend discount model is one of valuation model of the business. The present value of dividend amount is calculated to measure the overall performance of the company. The NPV amount in dividend discount model is used to measure the terminal value of the company. In case of Tassal group, dividend discount model has been applied on the company to measure the overall performance of the company. The dividend amount has been forecast on the basis of the profit and the dividend payout ratio of the company. The average dividend growth rate of the company is quite lower. However, the performance of the company is quite better (Higgins, 2012).

The present value of the dividends of the company has been measured on the basis of the cost of equity of the company. The present value factor has been multiplied with the dividend amount of the company to measure the performance of the company. The terminal value has been calculated further to measure the overall value of the company (Jiashu, 2009). the time value discounted factor of the company is $ 4401.89. the time value of dividend amount is $ 984.55.

The total value of the firm is $ 5386.44. The annual report (2017) explains that the total outstanding shares of the company are 156 millions. So, it has been found that the share price of the company should be $ 34.53. It explains that the share price of the company is quite higher than the actual market price of the company.

Discount Dividend Model
		Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast
	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
		1	2	3	4	5	6
Forecast Dividend		544.45	182.32	190.68	203.73	209.88	221.95
Forecast Dividend Growth			-66.5%	4.6%	6.8%	3.0%	5.8%
Cost of Equity (Re)	6.70%	1.0670	1.1385	1.2148	1.2962	1.3830	1.4757
Present Value		510.26	160.14	156.97	157.18
Terminal Value (TV)					5705.55
TV discounted to present value	4401.89				-143271.6427
TV of Dividend	984.55
Total Value of Firm	5386.44				-117941.591
Shares Outstanding	156.00				-117114.22
Share price	$           34.53

Residual income model is among one of the most used valuation model of the business. The residual income model is different from other business valuation models due to its items. It focuses on the net income and operating activities of the company. The model mainly focuses on the capitalization process of the organization. The present value of dividend amount is calculated to measure the overall performance of the company. The NPV amount in residual income model is used to measure the terminal value of the company. In case of Tassal group, residual operating income model has been applied on the company to measure the overall performance of the company.

Evaluation of Tassal Group Limited

The present value of the dividends of the company has been measured on the basis of the cost of equity of the company (Barlow, 2006). The present value factor has been multiplied with the dividend amount of the company to measure the performance of the company. The terminal value has been calculated further to measure the overall value of the company. The time value discounted factor of the company is $ 8657. The time value of retained earnings is $ 1300.77.

The total value of the firm is $ 9957.77. The annual report (2017) explains that the total outstanding shares of the company are 156 millions. So, it has been found that the share price of the company should be $ 63.83. It explains that the share price of the company is quite higher than the actual market price of the company. The actual price of the company is $ 4.1.

Residual Income Method
		Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast
	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
		1	2	3	4	5	6
1a. Forecast NI		285.84	315.40	332.24	349.57	374.86	402.94
1b. Forecast OE	-1167.50	-1013.15	-836.14	-649.90	-453.63	-240.88	-9.38
2a. estimate cost of capital for equity	6.70%	6.70%	6.70%	6.70%	6.70%	6.70%	6.70%
2b. Discount factor  (1+re)^t		1.0670	1.1385	1.2148	1.2962	1.3830	1.4757
3a. calculate abnormal earnings		364.06	383.28	388.26	393.12	405.26	419.08
3b. Calculate forecast ae growth patterns			5.28%	1.30%	1.25%	3.09%	3.41%
3c. Discounted abnormal earnings		341.20	336.66	319.62	303.29
4. Calculate TV (perpetuity)					11220.83
5. Discount RI	8657.00
6. Sum of discounting ae	1300.77
Total Value of Firm	9957.77
Shares Outstanding	156.00
Share price	$           63.83

Residual operating income model:

The residual operating income model is different from other business valuation models due to its operational items. It focuses on the net operating assets and net operating profit after tax. The model mainly focuses on the operational activities of the organization. The present value of dividend amount is calculated to measure the overall performance of the company. The NPV amount in residual operating income model is used to measure the terminal value of the company. In case of Tassal group, residual operating income model has been applied on the company to measure the overall performance of the company (Brigham and Ehrhardt, 2013).

For calculating the present value of the company, WACC of the company has been measured. The calculations of residual operating income model explain that the time value discounted factor of the company is $ 11,077.43. The time value of AOE is $ 1018.86.

The total value of the firm is $ 12096.29. The annual report (2017) explains that the total outstanding shares of the company are 156 millions. So, it has been found that the share price of the company should be $ 77. It explains that the share price of the company is quite higher than the actual market price of the company (Gibson, 2011). The actual price of the company is $ 4.1.

Residual Operating Income Method
		Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast
	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
		1	2	3	4	5	6
1a. Forecast NOPAT		338.01	355.75	375.32	394.09	416.75	440.71
1b. Forecast NOA	1005.42	667.50	702.54	741.18	778.24	822.99	870.31
book value of debt
2a. estimate cost of capital for the firm	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%
2b. Discount factor  (1+rf)^t		1.0670	1.1385	1.2148	1.2962	1.3830	1.4757
3a. Calculate abnormal operating earnings		254.16	300.08	316.73	332.27	351.84	372.07
3b. Calculate forecast aoe growth patterns			18.1%	5.5%	4.9%	5.9%	5.8%
3c. Discounted abnormal operating earnings		238.20	263.58	260.73	256.35
4. Calculate TV (perpetuity with growth)					14358.09
5. Discounted TV	11077.43
6. Sum of discounted aoe	1018.86
Total Value of Firm	12096.29
NFO	85.00
Shares Outstanding	156.00
Share price	77.00

Lastly, the free cash flow studies have been conducted on the Tassal group to evaluate the total worth of the company. On the basis of the free cash flow calculations of the company, it has been identified that the free cash flow of an organization could be calculated on the basis of the net operating profit after tax and net operating assets have been used to measure the total worth of the company (Brigham and Daves, 2012). The calculations explain that the discounted factor of the company is $ 6920.69. Sum of discounted factor of the company is $ 1467.79 (Gapenski, 2008).

Sales Growth Forecast

The total value of the firm on the basis of the free cash flow of the company $ 8,388.49. The outstanding shares of the company are 156 shares. The share price of the company is $ 53.32. It explains that the real worth of the company is quite higher than the market price of the company.

Free Cash Flow
		Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast
	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
		1	2	3	4	5	6
1. Forecast FCF	–           293.98	675.93	320.71	336.68	357.03	372.00	393.39
2a. Estimate Cost of Capital for the firm	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%	8.34%
2b. Discount factor  (1+rf)^t		1.0670	1.1385	1.2148	1.2962	1.3830	1.4757
3a. Forecast FCF growth patterns			-52.55%	4.98%	6.04%	4.19%	5.75%
3b. Discount FCF = FCF/(1+re)t		633.49	281.70	277.16	275.45
4. TV= FCFt+1/(re – g)				15545.49551	8970.31
5. Discounted TV	6,920.69
6. Sum of discounted aoe	1,467.79
Total Value of Firm	8,388.49
NFO	70.00
Shares Outstanding	156.00
Share price	53.32

(Morningstar, 2018)

Figure 7: Share price

Figure 8: Market Capitalization

On the basis of the valuation model, it has been found that the discounted dividend model and residual income model is the best suited valuation model for Tassal group. This evaluation express that the real worth of the company is quite higher than the market price of the company. The share price of the models is $ 24.66 and $ 38.66. These values express about the better position of the company.

Further, the sensitivity analysis has been done on the basis of the pessimistic and optimistic scenario in context with the key values of the company such as cost of debt, sales growth, dividend payout ratio, cost of equity and ATO. The below is the table of the sensitivity analysis of the company:

Table 2
	Pessimistic	Base	Optimistic
	Decrease by 20%	Decrease by 10%		Increase by 10%	Increase by 20%
Sales Growth	3.80%	4.28%	4.75%	5.23%	5.70%
Share Price	$                  356.00	$                  320.40	$            445.00	$                   489.50	$                   534.00
Change %	-20%	-28%	0%	10%	20%
ATO	0.35408	0.39834	0.44	0.48686	0.53112
Share Price	$                  804.34	$                  723.90	$         1,005.42	$                1,105.96	$                1,206.51
Change %	81%	63%	126%	149%	171%
PM	9.02%	10.15%	11.28%	12.41%	13.53%
Share Price	$                  267.21	$                  240.49	$            334.02	$                   367.42	$                   400.82
Change %	-40%	-46%	-25%	-17%	-10%
Dividend Payout Ratio	22.08%	24.84%	27.60%	30.36%	33.12%
Share Price	$                    73.75	$                    66.38	$              92.19	$                   101.41	$                   110.63
Change %	-83%	-85%	-79%	-77%	-75%

(Annual report, 2015)

Sales growth has impacted on the overall valuation of the company at a great level. The sensitivity analysis on the sales growth of the company explains that the sales could be changed from 80% to 120%. If the sales would be decreased by 20% than the sales of the company would be $ 356. Further, if the sales would be decreased by 320740. In addition, it has been found that the optimistic value explains that the sales of the company be increased by 5.7%.

ATO:

ATO explains about the asset turnover ratio of the company. ATO has impacted on the overall valuation of the company at a great level. The sensitivity analysis on the ATO of the company explains that the asset turnover could be changed from 80% to 120%. If the ATO would be decreased by 20% than the asset price of the company would be $ 804.34. Further, if the sales would be decreased by 10% than the assets value would be $ 723.9. In addition, it has been found that the optimistic value explains that the assets of the company be increased by $ 1206.51% (Madhura, 2014).

Profit margin has impacted on the overall valuation of the company at a great level. The sensitivity analysis on the profit margin of the company explains that the profitability of the company could be changed from 80% to 120%. If the profit margin would be decreased by 20% than the total profit of the company would be $ 267.21. Further, if the profit would be decreased by 10% than it would be $ 240.49. In addition, it has been found that the optimistic value explains that the profit of the company be increased by 400.82.

Asset Turnover Forecast

Dividend payout:

In addition, the dividend payout of the company has been evaluated and it has been found that the total dividend amount of the company could be differing from $ 73.75 to $ 110.63 (Krantz, 2016).

WACC:

The WACC analysis also explains that the optimistic scenario and the pessimistic scenario of the company explain that the .cost of the company could be differ and it could impact on the overall performance of the company at a huge level.

On the basis of the overall study on Tassal group limited, it has been forecasted that the overall performance of the company is quite better. Firstly, the study has been done on the industry and the macro economical factors of the company to measure the overall performance of the company. Further, the financial analysis on the company has been conducted. This report focuses majorly on the valuations and the forecasting of the performance. The overall performance of the company and the evaluation of the study are as follows:

• The company could expand its business into new countries to enhance the market base and reduce the risk level of the company into foreign countries; it would be easier for the company to attract new customers through its innovative strategy and planning.
• The company could also diversify the market to manage the performance in the market. Company could offer new products into the market or some modification could also be done by the company to manage the performance.

• The main challenge of the company is maintain the profitability margins of the company. However, the research and development of the company is helping the company a lot to manage the business.
• The fluctuations in the exchange rate of the company could also affect the overall business and its operations of the company. The operations of the company explain that the operations of the company in foreign countries are better.
• The market demand and the government regulations are also not in the hand of the company and explain that the position of the company could be declined at any time because of few external issues.

• The challenges of the company could be improved through applying new strategies and policies of the company. The foreign market entry would be helpful for the company. The different strategy could help the company at a good level.
• The independent subsidiaries companies of Tassal group could also improve the performance of the company.
• The company should acquire the companies in the foreign market to manage the performance.

Conclusion:

To conclude, the overall performance of Tassal group is quite competitive, the forecasting process of the company explains about the better position of the company as well as the performance of the company has also been improved. The valuation process explains that the share price of the company is undervalued in the market and the changes into the strategies and policies have impacted positively on the overall position of the company. Few remedies have been given in the study for betterment of the company.

References:

Annual Report. 2015. Tassal Group Limited. (Online). Available at: https://www.tassal.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/150678-Tassal-AR-2015_web.pdf (accessed 3/6/18).

Annual report. 2016. Tassal Group Limited. (Online). Available at: https://www.tassal.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/FY2016-Annual-Report-Appendix-4E.pdf (accessed 3/6/18).

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