Impact Of Climate Change On Home City

Projected climate change

Human beings have been adjusting to the unpredictable climate around them for centuriesClimate changes that are presently taking place these days includes rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns,sea level rise and ocean acidification.Moreover, climate change is expected due to increase in greenhouse gas emissions.Rising ocean temperatures cause thermal increase of the oceans and in combination with melt water from land-based ice this is generating sea level rise. Climate research is vital in our efforts tomeasure future risks and opportunities slow the enduring emissions and adapt to the impactsassociated with a warmer world.Changes to the weather will have significant impacts on water resources, infrastructure,health,fisheries agriculture, biodiversity and coasts.Efficientdischargediminution efforts and weather change adaptation mutually will bring important social, environmental benefits with less economic risks; innovative opportunities can be exploited; and new thinking about climate flexibility will stimulate improvement. 

Ever growing human needs has been a primary factor affecting climate change. Exponential increase in greenhouse gases and aerosol attentivenesstriggered by human activities. Further, human intervention has also led to the warm atmosphere and the ocean, thereby ensuing in intense climatic conditions, rise in global mean sea level due to fast melting of glaciers and reduction in quantum of ice and snow. 

Considering the existing pace of greenhouse gas emission, various studies reveal alarming increase in global temperature to the extent of 1.5 °C by 2030, 2.5°C by 2050 and 4.5 °C by 2100subsequently leading to rise in mean sea level by 0.26m, 0.40m and 0.55 m respectively. The climatic imbalance may be catastrophic and at projected rate may result in following:

1. Extreme and extended heat waves.
2. Extreme and more recurrenttremendous rainfall over most of the mid-latitude land masses and over wet, humid regions (Review, 2014). 

Temperature: During the last fifty years, the maximum subsurface temperature of Melbourne has risen by around 0.81 °C and minimum temperature by 1.78 °C in comparison to the similar increase in value for the entire twentieth century. The number of colder months has drastically fallen down; heat waves have intensified breaking all-time records.  The instances of wildfires have increased worryingly (McKie, 2013).

Rainfall: The atmospheric changes have led to irregular patterns of rainfall all over the Melbourne. Southern and eastern Australia have seen decreases in annual average rainfall over the second half of the previous century. The average annual rainfall in Melbourne is below 600 mm which may vary from -8% to 3%.

Sea level rise: Mean sea level will continue to rise within the range of 0.07 meters to 0.16 meters. 

Temperature: The region will experience  a warming of around 0.8 °C increasing to about  1.9 °C This is likely to be partly due to creature behavior. There will be an increase in the high temperature days as projected. Warmer and drier climate is projected in Sydney to increase in evaporation, heat waves, fire risk and extreme winds

Climate variation in States of Australia

Rainfall: Average annual rainfall in Sydney is 1094 mm which in the future is to vary from 

-13% to 7 %. Winter rainfall will decrease  with the increase in intensity of rain.

Sea level rise: Mean sea level will continue to increase within the range of 0.09 meters to 0.18 meters.

Temperature: Darwin has a humid climate with distinct wet and dry seasons. The average temperature will be increasing in all the seasons and it may vary around 0.6 °C which can further increase to 1.5 °C.

Rainfall: Average annual rainfall in Darwin is 1728 mm which in the future may vary from -11% to 6%. Rainfall will increase with increased intensity.

Sea level rise: Mean sea level will continue to increase within the range of 0.08 meters to 0.16 meters.  

The climate change impacts are as listed below:

1. Loss of biodiversity and integrity of local ecosystems.
2. Potential increase in invasive species.
3. Loss of significant vegetation.
4. Loss or degradation of passive recreation areas.
5. Change in composition of local ecosystems.

Climate change is expected to influence the health of Australians over this century in numerous ways. Severalimpacts, such as heatwaves, would maneuverstraightly. Rest would occur circuitously through the turbulence of natural ecological systems, such as mosquito population range and activity(Hanna, et al., 2011). Most health impacts will impose unevenly across regions, demographic subgroups and communities, reflecting differences in location, socio-economiccircumstances, preparedness, infrastructure and institutional resources, and local preventive strategies(Edwards, 2010). The unfavorable fitness impacts of weather change will be highest among the people who have lower incomes, the aged and the unwell. People who do not have access to good and well-resourced accommodation will be at a disadvantage. 

The major health risks in Melbourne comprise of:

• Impacts on brutal climate conditions (floods, storms, cyclones, bushfires)
• Impacts of temperature limits which include heat waves(CSIRO, 2017).
• Food-borne communicable diseases (counting those due to Salmonella andCampylobacter)
• Water-borne contagious diseases and fitness risks from deprived water quality(Milman & Davey, 2015).
• Moderate food production and elevated prices, with nutritional cost
• Expansion in air pollution (for example, from bushfire smoke)
• Changes in production of spores, potentially exaggerate asthma and other allergic respiratory diseases (Pert, et al., 2010).
• Psychological health consequences and the arousing cost of communal, economic and demographic disruption. 

Projections with respect to climate changes are largely dependent on patterns observed over a specific duration of time. The detailed study widely includes the ever changing demography, economic and technological advancements and growing human needs. Climate variation in relation to future predictions depends on under mentioned factors:

Natural climate variability: The climate varies with each passing year, primarily due to various natural variables viz. El Nino southern oscillation, volcanic eruptions and variation because of sun’s orbit(McMichael, 2009).

Greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions: RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) are used to calculate Greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. The RCPnumber signifies the extraradiative impact on the climate system or the concentration of CO2 in the environment(Koperberg & Firth, 2008). Though, the variation in RCP is minor up to2025, the value is snowballing thereafter. The significance of value of RCP can be tabulated as below: 

Climate change impacts in Melbourne

Being one of the largest country in the world, with the wide spread time zone, the climatic conditions are bound to vary remarkably. The projected climatic changes with respect to the previous and the present century on various geographical landmarks of Australia are as tabulated below:

The aftermath of climatic imbalance on various Australian states/ territories could be as appended below:

Northern Territory: 90 percent of the Kakadu wetland system will be adversely affected by Sea level rise of 18–59 cm.The number of annual temperature related deaths is expected to increase almost sevenfold(CSIRO, 2001).

Queensland: The Great Barrier Reef will no longer be subjugated by corals or acquire many of the organisms we recognize today. The number of deaths caused by the increase or decrease in temperature in a year is expected to triple, from 1747 in a world without climate change to 5878.Queensland’s coastal settlements are predictable to suffer tremendous infrastructure impacts from enlarged storm surge and localized flash flooding.

Western Australia: Over the course of the century, constant diminution in water availability will escort to raise the cost of mining activity and temporary cutbacks in production(Australian Government, 2017). Nearly 34 percent of supplementary capital expenditure will be needed to provide substitute water supplies.

New South Wales: The number of yearly temperature-related deaths are expected to decrease by30 per cent. Irrigated agricultural production in the Murray-Darling Basin falls by 92 per cent.

South Australia: The state will face a 33  percent turn down in livestock productivity. 44 percent reduction will be faced by Australian wine industry in the appropriaterising area by mid-century. Quality of grape will also reduce.

Victoria:Nearly 25percent of state wheat production may fall.More than 50 percent of surroundings of Eucalypt variety will be lost Australia-wide.

Tasmania: Right through the century global warming has the advantageous effect of reducing yearly cold-related deaths. Increased breeze and rainstorm events will reduce the number of Bass Strait sailings, affecting trade(Dominiak & Simpson, 2013).

Australian Capital Territory: The number of yearly temperature-related deaths in the Australian Capital Territory is estimated to decrease by 25 per cent. About 17 per cent supplementary capital expenditure will be needed to provide substitute water supplies. 

Climate change can be managed by two important factors:

Mitigation: It means lessening the emissions to edge the extent of climate change. It can be achieved by augmenting energy efficiency, larger use of renewable energy, upgraded manufacturing processes, greater use of sustainable transport and enhanced carbon uptake.

Human health V/s climatic change

Adaptation: It involves the gradual transformation at smaller intervals or major transformation with swift change. It can be achieved by the means of following:

• Engineering solutions include sea wall and coastal protection structures
• Institutional solutions involve National, regional and local adaptation plans, Insurance and education(Hopkins, et al., 2013).
• Technological solutions include advanced building techniques, agriculture management and disaster risk reduction.
• Ecosystem based solutions involves conservation and re-plantation of mangroves, preservation of fisheries and reduction of existing ecosystem stressors (Jones, 2003).

Conclusion

Climate change is the significant concern of our times. It is, perhaps, one of the greatest chores to sustainable development. It should be pontificated by all the countries with a collective outlook, free from narrow and intolerant considerations. The developed countries need to look ahead of their slender self-interests and should work jointly with the budding countries to evolve supportive and collective strategies on the issue of climate change, which is of enormous relevance for the future of mankind. However, the efforts so far in the direction of meeting the challenges of climate change have been infrequent and illogical. We immediately need a new economic prototype, which is global, comprehensive, cooperative, accommodative, environmentally sensitive and above all scientific. According to Jeffrey Sachs,a perceptive commentator, “The world’s current ecological, demographic and economic trajectory is unsustainable, meaning that if we continue with “business as usual” we will hit social and biological crises with disastrous results”. Sustainable development based on addressing the needs of the poor and the finest harnessing of inadequate resources of water, air, energy, land, and biodiversity will have to be constant through more cooperative endeavors’. Alone, then, we could make some headway in saving our lone planet from the verge of climate disasters.

References

Australian Government, 2017. Assessment of Australia’s Terrestrial Biodiversity 2008. [Online]
Available at: https://environment.gov.au/biodiversity/publications/assessment-australias-terrestrial-biodiversity-2008

CSIRO, 2001. Climate Projections for Australia, Available at: https://www.cffet.net/esd/ESD3_projections.pdf

CSIRO, 2017. CSIRO, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Available at: https://www.australia.gov.au/directories/australia/csiro

Department of Environment and Energy, 2016. Global climate change: Australia’s changing climate: CSIRO, Available at: https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.1.6/cms_page_media/176/AUSTRALIAS_CHANGING_CLIMATE_1.pdf

Dominiak, B. & Simpson, M., 2013. The effect of climate change on the geographical distribution of Queensland fruit fly in Australia, Available at: https://www.cherrygrowers.org.au/assets/PASE_Climate_change_and_QFF_distribution.pdf

Edwards, M., 2010. Security Implications of a Worst-case Scenario of Climate Change in the South-west Pacific. Australian Geographer journal, 30(3), pp. 311-330.

Hanna, E., Harley, D. & Xu, C., 2011. Overview of Climate Change Impacts on Human Health in the Pacific Region: Commonwealth Of Australia, Available at: https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/913ce469-d94f-47b0-9db9-40b051a6d896/files/overview-climate-change-impacts-human-health-pacific-region.pdf

Hopkins, D., Higham, J. & Becken, S., 2013. Climate change in a regional context: relative vulnerability in the Australasian skier market. Regional Environmental Change, April, 13(2), p. 449–458.

Jones, R., 2003. OECD Workshop on the Benefits of Climate Policy: Improving Information for Policy Makers: OECD, Available at: https://www.oecd.org/env/cc/19519189.pdf

Koperberg, P. & Firth, V., 2008. NSW Biodiversity and Climate Change Adaptation Framework, Available at: https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/resources/threatenedspecies/0762biodivccadapt.pdf

McMichael, A., 2009. Climate Change in Australia: Risks to Human Wellbeing and Health, Available at: https://nautilus.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/australia-health2.pdf

McKie, R., 2013. Climate change: IPCC cites global temperature rise over last century, Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/sep/21/climate-change-ipcc-fossil-temperature

Milman, O. & Davey, M., 2015. Climate change will significantly affect Australians’ health, report finds., Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/29/climate-change-will-significantly-affect-australians-health-report-finds

Pert, P., Hill, R. & Williams, K., 2010. Scenarios for Community-based Approaches to Biodiversity Conservation: a case study from the Wet Tropics, Queensland, Australia. Australian Geographer journal, 41(3), pp. 285-306.

Review, T. G. C. C., 2014. Climate change impacts on Australia, Available at: https://www.garnautreview.org.au/pdf/Garnaut_Chapter6.pdf

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