Analyzing Future Scenarios
The purpose of this assignment is to understand the new megatrends and how they will be helpful for the future of the tourism and hospitality industry. The megatrends provides with new opportunities which should be taken into consideration for economic development, product placing, the new emerging markets, the shift in the economy, the changes in the environment and the new and developed world. The incorporation of new talent for better facilities which will help in garnering loyal customers, all these have to be analyzed accordingly, to understand their potential and flaws.
In the recent times, there are several new trends which have a potential to bring a transformation in the society. These emerging new trends are important for the society, but there are also some megatrends which are crucial for the growth and development of the tourism and hospitality industry all over the world. These megatrends have the potential to bring changes which will have a massive impact on the social, economic, political and environmental aspects of the world (Adige, 2018).
The megatrend More from Less is an initiative which has to be taken by communities, governments and companies in searching new ways which will help in ensuring that the quality of life in the future and in the present is sustainable and is in the confinement of limited resources which are available for human being. According to this megatrend science, business processes, technology, lifestyle patterns, cultural norms and government policies play a very crucial role in successfully implementing this megatrend.
The following analysis has been conducted through the Christaller’s theory. The population of the Earth is rising at an alarming rate. According to several studies by the year 2025, the population of this planet will be around eight billion and will rapidly go to increase every year. This will put a strong pressure on the resources, as they are more in demand and less in supply. Tourism industry runs on these natural resources. There is also a very high rate of resources which are wasted in the current hospitality scenario. The hotels and restaurants have to utilize new megatrends which will direct them to preserve and use the resources provided to them efficiently (Buckley, Gretzel, Scott, Weaver & Becken, 2015).
The increasing industrialization and the population will have a huge impact on the natural system. The increasing industrialization will increase the emission of the greenhouse gas and will also have a huge impact on the climate. These practices have led to the extinction of many plants and animal species while most of them are on the brink of going to be extinct. The going, going, gone megatrend focuses on the ecological habits which needs major changes and also on the biodiversity (Fonseca & Seabra, 2016).
The Butler’s theory has been incorporated to analyze this trend. The loss of biodiversity is increasing with a rapid rate. The increase in hotels and restaurants have led to the increase in deforestation. More building more plants are being cut down. The architectural plan of these constructions should ensure that there should be no loss of biodiversity and the ecological balance should always be maintained. The hospitality industry should have a biodiversity plan along with the different strategies they apply and put focus on, the biodiversity plans also require such attention which is crucial for developing protected areas in the environment.
2.1 More For Less
The economy of the world is going a witness a huge shift in the world’s economy, which will happen from west to east and from north to south. This shift in the economy should be utilized for the betterment of life and in increasing the standards of living by utilizing the resources which are available in our confinement (Hessel, 2014).
The silk highway is a megatrend and Tourism life cycle theory has been chosen to analyze this megatrend. This trend should be used for the betterment of the current and the future generations. Asia is going to establish the most powerful and influential economy. This will affect the tourism too, which will be positive and thus be utilized more effectively. The resources which are very commonly used in the hotel industry like oil, coal, and many other, can be acquired from different places and also technology will be further utilized to come up with methods which will help in fulfilling the increasing demands of resources and in producing more.
This is the biggest change which will be witnessed by a number of countries all over the world. In the recent times there has been an increase in the senior citizens who have been going for more vacations than the generation Y and Z. This new megatrend is known as “forever young”, but the appropriate name for this trend should be the “hidden treasure”.
The tourism industry has to build strategies and plans which have the main focus on the senior citizens. The tourism life cycle theory is used to analyze this megatrend. Now, these people have experience, knowledge and wealth which they have collected out of so many years of hard work and now want to invest them in activities which fulfill their needs of enjoying life to the fullest. The baby boomer’s generation have huge wealth and want to experiment with new trends and are ready to spend any amount. The tourism industry has to indulge in a number of different tours which are specially built for them and also should utilize this megatrend for more development (Houran, Lange & Kefgen, 2012).
The world is coming closer to each other and there have been an increase in the connection between people. Communities, governments and business all are getting closer that has been identified as another megatrend which is known as virtually here. This trend is beneficial for everyone, be it the people or the business and the government. The Doxey’s irritation irridex theory has been used to analyze this trend.
The tourism and hospitality industry runs on people. Be it the people who are helping them to function smoothly or the people for whom they are working that are the customers. The increase and development in the digital world have helped the tourism world in the recent time. This trend is now a megatrend which will help in increasing the convenience level in the tourism industry. The booking of tickets, hotels, planners and food, all are conducted through the internet which bring more clarity for the consumer as well as the seller (Hessel, 2014).
2.2 Going, Going, Gone?
Great expectation is a megatrend which is collection of trends which will include society, consumers and culture. In the coming years people will have great expectations associated with their needs and wants. Now, great expectations do not always mean “good”, but they mean that in the coming decades the people want their expectations to be fulfilled with great behavior which is morally correct and the personalization which is offered to them should also be way above satisfactory. The great also means the increase in the economic growth which will provide the consumers with opportunities to make great investments and increase their expenditure. The Cohen’s theory has been incorporated to analyze this megatrend.
Customer service is a huge part of tourism and hotel industry. The industry has to utilize this megatrend and build new standards of customer services which have to increase after every short while making sure that the customers have their great expectations fulfilled which will help the industry in increasing the expenditures of the consumer and transforming them into their profits. This will help the tourism industry to bounce back from the financial crisis, which ruined many people’s lives. The personalization which is offered to the customers should be innovative and should be value for money. In fulfilling the expectations of the customers, special attention should be given to the senior citizen and to the people who belong to the section of living alone (Lazarus, 2009).
- Minimum Manual Labor
In the future, everything in hotels and restaurants will be computerized which will reduce the manual labor. Even the waiters and the butlers will be replaced by robots who will do all the work for the customers in lesser time. The manual labor of the customers will also reduce as they no more have to walk up to their rooms, whereas they will be taken in their own personalized mini flying tubes which will drop them outside their rooms (Ring, 2013).
- Perfect Sanitary Conditions
The bathrooms of the future hotels will be all computerized and personalized. There will be smart toilets which are adjusted according to the needs of the customer. The shower area will also have a smart floor, which will also have a personalized music system which can be used according to the customer’s wish and also the theme of the floor can be decided according to the needs of the customers.
- Meal Transportation Process
There will be a whole new process of ordering food. The robots will take the order which will then be sent for processing in the isolated kitchen will prepare the order and the order will be directly transported on the table through a network of distribution. This high technology will enable better customer services and also will reduce the time consumption (Lee, 2017).
- High Quality Services
There will be nothing mediocre about the future hotels, everything will be of high standards. The megatrends have the main focus on increasing the quality of life within the available resources. The customer’s will have high quality morphing beds which will be operated through voice commands fulfilling every customer’s unique choice and demands.
- Affordable Prices
2.3 The Silk Highway
The megatrend silk highway will help in the development of the world’s economy, which will also help in implementing the great expectations megatrend too. The future hotels offering so many facilities of high standards does not mean that they will be affordable for only a particular section of the society who have huge wealth. These facilities will be available for everyone as the whole industry will witness a change and also the changing economy will help in making it affordable (Marinkovic, 2016).
Image source: (marketing-insider.eu)
- Social
The society will come closer with the megatrends as people will stay more connected with the help of technology specially with hyper connectivity.
- Technological
The main drivers which will be involved is the hyper connectivity, the voice and action commands and the transformation of mirrors into a screen helping to see the virtual images (Rogova, 2018).
- Economic
The economy is going to witness a huge rise, specially in the Asian countries. The economy is also going to develop due to the forever young megatrend which will get the economy the hidden treasures.
- Natural Resources
The natural resources will be produced in abundance through the help of technology and biodiversity plans which will be incorporated in the construction plans of the hotels and restaurants. The conveyer belt, which will be used for orders transportation is also helpful in producing vegetables.
- Political
With the change in the economic and social aspects of the world, there will be many changes which the world’s politics will witness (Schneider, 2012).
- Demographic
The main driving force and the change in the demographic will come from the forever young megatrend. The senior citizens and the baby boomers will not only be the driving force, but they will also be the dominating force too.
- International
The international changes main driving forces will be the economy, the politics and the society. There will be a huge reduction in the terrorism world which will enable people to visit places they always wanted to but initially were dreadful.
- Legal
With everything being computerized and in organized records the legality of the working and many different situations which are associated with hotels license or any other incidences.
- Environmental
All these megatrends have the main focus on building a sustainable environment and the tourism industry have to take many initiatives which help in controlling the wastage of resources and energy (Smith, 2011).
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- Competitive Rivalry
2.4 Forever Young
There will be a huge increase in the competition between different hotels and restaurants. The main driving forces will be the development of the economy and the increase in diversity of people in each country.
- Supplier Power
The supply power, has to improve as the new ways and methods which have been taken under with the help of technology and the control in natural resource wastage will help in increasing the supply power. The hotels will be facilitated with opportunities to develop loyal customers.
- Buyer Power
The buyer’s power will increase as they will be able to afford more expenditure, which will help them to increase their buying power. The buyers will be provided with value for money services.
- Threat of Substitution
The threat of substitution will be very high. Every day new technologies are developed and the next day their substitute is brought into the market. This threat of substitution will also rise the competition between competitors.
- Threat of New Entry
The new entry which will come into the market will also be a threat to the old companies. They have the access to all the information and necessity, providing them with an environment which can be easily accessed (Youn, Johanson & Woods, 2011).
The opportunities are-
- Access to bigger market.
- Bouncing back from the financial crisis.
- The increase in work efficiency through robots and hyper connectivity.
- The perfect utilization of resources.
- The increase in the tourism of baby boomers and senior citizen.
- The organized and systematic work place (Taylor & Budworth, 2018).
- Sustainable environment.
- More economic development.
- Saving the planet.
- Strong bonds between society.
The threats are-
- Loss of manual labor.
- Everything is functioning through machines.
- Increase in industrialization will affect the environment.
- Natural resources still will suffer.
- Senior citizens will be turned into scapegoats (Önder & Gunter, 2016).
- The shift in the economy.
- Loss of generation Y and Z.
- Technology will take over the world.
- Easily accessible thing increase the rate of faults.
- The political aspect will face many challenges due to the changes.
There are various socio-cultural factors which are influencing the emerging of global tourism in many places, due to the lack of security of foreign people. There have been increases in complaints regarding crimes and frauds with tourists. The community’s attitude, social security and community’s involvement are some other factors which are affecting the development of tourism. Also, there are political factors too, like political unrest, political dominance and many others which are affecting the emerging of the global tourism market. There are economic factors too which have affected the growth of tourism like inflation, economic crisis and many others.
Tourism has a relationship with commodity, visual and media culture. Tourism is a complicated socio-cultural of the modern world and has witnessed an impact from the capitalist consumer culture. The relationship between tourism and commodity culture have brought economic impact. The commodity culture and tourism relationship also had an impact on the sex, culture and religion. The relationship between tourism and visual culture has been there for ages. Tourists get attracted to places which have visual appeal like beautiful architecture, scenic beauty and picturesque surrounding. The visual culture and tourism is a parallel culture which will go hand in hand till infinite. The relationship between tourism and media have become very strong in the last two decades as the media and its various mediums helps in conveying effective messages to the tourists which helps in attracting them to new and different places.
The video shows a development tomorrow of the tourism and hospitality industry. The changes which have been mentioned in it are for increasing the standards of life for human beings and also for bringing more convenience in everyone’s life. The change focus on more personalization which are the key aspect of gaining customers and delivering perfect customer services. But few aspects do raise some concerns which are related to decrease in manual labor. This will increase the unemployment rate, which will happen at a greater rate as the complete functioning of the hotel is through technology thus affecting the manual labor with huge rate. The tourism and hospitality industry will make huge profit due these megatrends but the risk on the natural resources will still continue (Carr & Hayes, 2016).
2.5 Virtually Here
5. Conclusion:
The megatrends is the step towards an organized economic development and also towards a sustainable environment. The different aspects associated with them have shown a lot of potential that are the opportunities, but there are also areas which are the main threats. Like the increase in industrialization, decrease in manual labor, increase in customer service, and many others. So the megatrends can be seen as mixed bag right now, but the threats which it will impose can have serious repercussion, which should be addressed before their implementation.
Though these megatrends have shown many positive signs but these are just the predictions. The massive adaptation of technology has helped in making everything systematic and organized. The tourism industry has to think of ways to utilize the manual labor more effectively, as the trends should not lead to loss of jobs and a livelihood people. The industry should adopt such changes, but also plan out alternatives for people who will be out of a job (Li & Jago, 2013).
7. References:
Adige, S. (2018). Book Review: Asian Megatrends by Rajiv BiswasBiswasRajiv, Asian Megatrends (UK: Palgrave Macmillan Publication, 2016), pp. 245, US$36, ISBN: 9781137441881. China Report, 54(2), 258-260.
Buckley, R., Gretzel, U., Scott, D., Weaver, D., & Becken, S. (2015). Tourism megatrends. Tourism Recreation Research, 40(1), 59-70.
Carr, N., & Hayes, S. (2016). An analysis of trends in Ph.D. research in tourism. Tourism Recreation Research, 42(1), 32-44.
Fonseca, A., & Seabra, C. (2016). https://www.scitechnol.com/peer-review/issues-of-croatian-touristic-identity-in-modern-touristic-trends-VJGq.php?article_id=4907. Journal Of Tourism Research & Hospitality, 05(01).
Hessel, V. (2014). Megatrends – megascience?. Green Processing And Synthesis, 3(2).
Hessel, V. (2014). Megatrends – megascience? Part 4. Green Processing And Synthesis, 3(5).
Houran, J., Lange, R., & Kefgen, K. (2012). Industry Trends. Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, 54(1), 6-9.
Lazarus, C. (2009). 10 Megatrends in Medical Education. Oncology Times, 31(1), 6.
Lee, P. (2017). TrainTraining and Development Trends in the Hospitality Industry- Evidence from Hospitality Management Journalsing and Development Trends in the Hospitality Industry- Evidence from Hospitality Management Journals. Journal Of Tourism Research & Hospitality, 06(02).
Li, S., & Jago, L. (2013). Evaluating economic impacts of major sports events – a meta analysis of the key trends. Current Issues In Tourism, 16(6), 591-611.
Marinkovic, L. (2016). Issues of Croatian Touristic Identity in Modern Touristic Trends. Journal Of Tourism Research & Hospitality, 05(01).
Önder, I., & Gunter, U. (2016). Forecasting Tourism Demand with Google Trends For a Major European City Destination. Tourism Analysis, 21(2), 203-220.
Ring, T. (2013). IT’s megatrends: the security impact. Network Security, 2013(7), 5-8.
Rogova, I. (2018). Hospitality Industry In Modern Conditions: Recent Trends And Problems Of Development. Vestnik Universitita, (6), 83-87.
Schneider, S. (2012). Investition in Megatrends. Versicherungsmagazin, 59(11), S6-S8.
Smith, R. (2011). Global Lodging Trends Have Unique Regional Flairs. Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, 52(3), 226-227.
Taylor, J., & Budworth, L. (2018). Patterns and trends from a quantitative analysis of the Culture Excellence assessment program. Worldwide Hospitality And Tourism Themes, 10(3), 330-344.
Youn, H., Johanson, M., & Woods, R. (2011). Authorship Trends and Perspectives within the Hospitality and Tourism Academy. Journal Of Hospitality & Tourism Education, 23(1), 44-50.
7.1 Image & Video References
Claessens, M. (2018). The Macro Environment – Six Forces (DESTEP). Retrieved from https://marketing-insider.eu/macro-environment/
Porter’s Five Forces Explained with Examples | B2U. (2018). Retrieved from https://www.business-to-you.com/porters-five-forces/
future hotel (Global future). (2018). [Video]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mW-oQI_30J8.
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