Reflection On Economist Informational Interview And Macroeconomic Analysis

Consumer Price Inflation

Gross Domestic Product of Australia has shown a continuous upward trend from 2000 to 2000 to 2014.The four main components of GDP are Consumption expenditure, investment expenditure, government expenditure and net export. The government in Australia has spent a significant amount for final consumption expenditure over time as reflected from the sharp upward trend. The increased government expenditure is one factor contributing to rise in GDP of Australia. The similar trend is observed for New Zealand. GDP measured in constant base year accounted a continuous rise in GDP. Like Australia, government expenditure in New Zealand is rising continuously. Government consumption expenditure being one important component of GDP has a positive contribution in GDP. India, being a developing nation has recorded a significant growth rate in GDP. The growth rate of GDP in India is even greater than Australia and New Zealand. Indian government has made significant contribution in GDP with its increasing expenditure of final consumption. For Germany, again an increasing trend is found for GDP and in government expenditure on final consumption.

GDP of a nation is one important indicator of economic performance. A growing trend in GDP ensures a growth for the economy. As far as GDP is concerned all the four nations accounted a rising trend in their GDP. Government debt in Australia continue to decline from 2000 to 2008. Since then, the share government debt increases. For New Zealand, government debt first declines and then rises from 2008 onwards and starts falling again from 2012. India accounted a distinct trend from the two previous two nations. Government debt continuously decreases in India. Central government’s debt in Germany has a similar trend than that of Australia and New Zealand. Movement of import in Australia has gone through a fluctuating trend with import reaching peak in 2008. The imports in India constitute an upward rising trend. While for Germany, import grows at a relatively slow rate and the trend is slowly declining in New Zealand.

(Source: fred.stlouisfed.org 2018)

Consumer price inflation is Australia is showing a fluctuating trend. In 1980, inflation rate was as high as 10%. It then continuously fall until 1984 and attained a low level at 4%. In the next two years, unemployment rate rises and reaches to a point slightly higher than 8%.  From 1986 onwards there is an overall decline in the unemployment rate and finally settled in between 0 to 2 percent in 2015.

Unemployment rate for population aged 15 and over

Unemployment rate in Australia has accounted an overall declining rate. Unemployment increases slightly from 1980 to 1984 but since 1994 unemployment rate declining continuously until 2008. After the global financial crisis, unemployment rate increases from 4 percent to 6 percent.

The concept of Phillips curve explains an inverse relation between inflation and unemployment. Inflation arising from demand side lead to expansion of productive activity and hence, creates new employment opportunity and reduces unemployment (Bernanke, Antonovics and Frank 2015). However, for Australia the Phillips curve relation is not satisfied. As shown from the inflation and unemployment trend above, both inflation and unemployment reduces simultaneously over time.

The macroeconomic equilibrium occur at the intersection point of aggregate demand and aggregate supply curve. Corresponding to the equilibrium, real GDP and price level is determined. Aggregate demand curve is downward sloping both in the short run and in the long-run. However, shape of the aggregate supply is different in short run and that in the long run. In the long run, as the economy has already reached to the potential level of output, it is generally not possible to increase output further (Scarth 2014). Therefore, the long run aggregate supply curve is a given by a vertical straight line as shown in the above figure. The figure above explains the effect of a decrease in government expenditure in the long-run. Government expenditure is an important determinant of aggregate demand. A decrease in government expenditure decreases aggregate demand causing a leftward shift of the aggregate demand curve. The aggregate demand curve shifts from AD to AD_1. The long run equilibrium point moves from point A to point B. At the new equilibrium price level declines from P* to P₁ and output remains fixed at the potential level of Y*.

The short run supply curve is upward rising. The reduced price level in the long-run, decreases supply in the short run because of the positive relation between price and output (Heijdra 2017). SRAS denotes the short run supply curve. In response to a reduced price level, short run supply curve shifts leftward from SRAS to SRAS₁. The short run equilibrium shifts from E to E₁. Consequently, there is a contraction in economic output from Y₁ to Y₂ and an increase in price level from P₁ to P_2.  The high price in the short run again encourages aggregate supply and the output gradually move to the potential level.

Effect of a decrease in government expenditure on long run equilibrium

The effect of a decrease in government expenditure in the short run is different from that in the long-run.  In the short run, the aggregate supply curve is positively sloped and the economy has not reached to the full employment level (Mankiw 2014). A decrease in government expenditure in this situation shift aggregate demand from AD to AD_1. There is contraction in both equilibrium output and price level. Output declines from Y* to Y₁ while price decreases from P* to P_1.

Economics being one of the most dynamic and cognitive subjects in the contemporary period, the same has been increasing its domain of operations impressively. An economics graduate, therefore, can therefore explore various professional domains for career building. Keeping this in mind, I, as a macroeconomist, want to explore the opportunities I have in the banking and financial sector existing in the economy of Australia. Given that the banking and financial sector is one of the flourishing sectors in the industrial scenario of the country, this sector appears to be immensely prospective for my professional growth. The organization I specifically want to work for, in this sector, is the National Australia Bank.

There are several lucrative and exciting job roles for me in this sector. However, the job role in the banking and financial sector which I find to be most interesting and relevant for my future career growth is the role of a policy analyst in the concerned bank. As the name suggests, the main job responsibilities held by a policy analyst of any bank in general includes the following:

• Elaborate research of the different economic and financial policies existing and introduced which can affect the clients of the organization and in other countries with whom the banks have business tie-ups.
• To find the solutions to different problems encountered by banks and their clientele in the aspect of policy implications.
• To recommend legislations and other ways of addressing policy related issues.

For carrying out these responsibilities, strong economic knowledge is required, especially for understanding the depth of the issues cropping up and for suggesting feasible and affordable way outs for the clientele as well as for the banks. Strong persuasive power and writing skills are also required for prospering in this job role.

To apply for the same successfully, it is important for me to put my research and writing skills along with my ability to think in the depth of such situations and the ability to suggest productive and economic solutions have to be put forward the recruiter of the National Australia Bank.

The main attributes of the job of a policy of National Australia Bank, which attracted me to apply for the same, are the huge scopes of learning, exploring, researching in this field along with the aspect of applying personal insights and of thinking out of the box in finding solutions to the problems.

Equilibrium adjustment in the short run

Values- Personally, I believe in working for a mission and can endure flexible working hours also for the purpose.

Interests- I enjoy analyzing and working with numerical data and in interpreting their trends.

Personality- I am equally comfortable with working alone as well as in a team and can also work in a dynamic schedule.

Skills- According to my perceptions, my key abilities include analysis of complex data, prediction of trends, interpretation of policies and their implications and also writing and communication abilities.

As can be seen from my MWL101 test, my personality appears to be creative. It also seems to be able to engross in any kind of work situations, evolve new ideas and communicate the same, I find myself to be suitable as an applicant for the job of policy analyst in the concerned organization, which may also develop my long-term communication and data interpretation skills.

Some of the most interesting aspects of the interview video includes the fact that the respondent, Jeff Hole, an economist by profession shares his insights about the role and importance of economics as a subject in the contemporary world. He also shares his views on what eminent roles economists can play in the constantly changing and evolving global economic and commercial scenarios. The person also shares several crucial tips for the budding economists, which can help them to prosper and build their career in this field.

The primary concern, which the video raises, is that with the continuous evolution of economics as a subject and the changing global pattern, there exit a plethora of opportunities for economists in the aspect of professional domain. However, there remains confusion regarding which industries are prospective and how to venture in the same for building ones career.

In the interview, Jeff Holes advices the students to get professional experiences, while pursuing their graduation, which may help them in the process of job finding after completion of the course. However, it does not mention the organizations and industries where the student should explore and the procedure for applying in these organizations while pursuing their graduation.

Based on my learning and on my goals to pursue my dream of becoming a policy analyst I have done extensive groundwork on the job roles and prospects of a policy analyst. I have also started to look for the appropriate channels and ways to progress in this aspect. However, I have to look for a mentor to guide me to pursue my aims. I also need to apply for internships in those organizations and for those job roles, while pursuing my academic coursework, which will in future help me in getting my desired job in the National Australia Bank.

References

Bernanke, B., Antonovics, K. and Frank, R., 2015. Principles of macroeconomics. McGraw-Hill Higher Education.

Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. (2018). Australia’s trade in goods and services 2016. [online] Available at: https://dfat.gov.au/about-us/publications/trade-investment/australias-trade-in-goods-and-services/Pages/australias-trade-in-goods-and-services-2016.aspx [Accessed 12 Jan. 2018].

Fred.stlouisfed.org. (2018). Federal Reserve Economic Data | FRED | St. Louis Fed. [online] Available at: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ [Accessed 12 Jan. 2018].

Heijdra, B.J., 2017. Foundations of modern macroeconomics. Oxford university press.

Mankiw, N.G., 2014. Principles of macroeconomics. Cengage Learning.

Scarth, W., 2014. Macroeconomics. Edward Elgar Publishing.

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