The Impact Of Falling Oil Prices On Education Industry In UAE

Research Objectives

The fluctuations in the price of oil in the U.A.E have brought many changes and have greatly affected the life of the citizens of the country.  The change in the prices of oil proves to be much disadvantageous for the people of the country, the expat citizens, level of education of the country. The decrease in the prices of the oil and other resources has brought a great disaster on the economy. The economy of the United Arab Emirates is dependent on fossil fuels and oil for sustaining the economy. All kind of activities related to the development of education, standard of living and lifestyle and other sectors is strictly dependant on the development in the sector of fossil fuels and their extraction (Griffin & Teece, 2016). The whole investment and the development brought in the total education system of the economy is mainly dependant on the output and the sales of the oil products from the oil mines. The main economy of this country is mainly dependant on oil and is with it arising or fluctuation in prices, each and every activity conducted in the economy shall get disrupted. Though the economy has not suffered from the rapid change in the prices of oil in an abrupt amount, still the economy has suffered to an extent, as many of the aspects are still, dependant on the availability of oil resources. Due to the fall in oil prices, the investment made on education has decreased leading to the limitation faced by foreign students in completing their studies in the country. Due to the less number of foreign students in the country due to this reason, the students of UAE have suffered from a cultural and social isolation, which have put enough hindrance in the development of creative sand intellectual components among the native students of the country.

The problem statement is to investigate regarding the impact of changes of the prices of oil on the level and standard of education imparted at various educational institutions in the United Arab Emirates. Along with this, the different impacts of the fall in the oil price on the life of the citizens and expat residents shall also be considered and studied in this assignment.

• To find out the various hindrances faced in the education system in U.A.E
• To recognize the various impacts on the life of the citizens and expats due to the changes in oil prices
• To know and search about the techniques applied by the expats for staying in U.A.E for such a long period
• To find out the consequences of the fall in the prices of oil on the citizens and expats residents

• What are the hindrances faced by the education system in the U.A.E?
• What are the main impacts on the lives of the citizens and expats due to the change in the oil prices?
• What are the techniques applied by the expats for staying in U.A.E for such a long period?
• What are the consequences of the fall in the prices of oil on the citizens and expats residents?

The effects of falling oil prices were expected to hit the Middle Eastern countries sooner than later. This is because of the fact that, most of these countries are heavily dependent on the oil industry. The impact of the falling oil prices on the economy of UAE has been unique. However, this study is only concerned with the impacts of the dip in oil prices in the recent oil prices on the education industry of UAE and the citizens and expats of the country.

The primary effect of the dip in oil prices over the past few years in UAE is the decrease in budget allocation by the government of UAE in a few specific sectors. As the overall economy is primarily dependant on the production and export of oil, it has had dire consequences on the economy of UAE (Kilian, 2016). Therefore, the government of UAE had to make significant cutbacks in the budget in respect of a few sectors. The education sector of UAE has suffered the wrath of these cutbacks.  Because of this, the education sector of UAE has faced diverse problems with regard to the funding issues.  On the other hand, the decline in oil prices has seen a rise in investment in the manufacturing sector as the cost of production has fallen (Nusair, 2016).

Research Questions

The fall in oil prices had a tremendous impact on the gross domestic product of UAE. Therefore, the government of UAE has had to make major cutbacks in the education sector of UAE. However, looking back, it can be observed that there has been an increase in budget allocation in the manufacturing sector (Jouini, 2013). This is primarily because of the fact that UAE has been on the lookout to diversify its economy. In addition to this, the falling oil prices have led to a decrease in the cost of production in the manufacturing industry. A negative correlation has been observed in the budget allocation in the manufacturing sector and the education sector. In addition to this, the investment in the service sector has also declined (Chapman, 2014). A detailed study of the budget statistics if UAE over the past 20 years show that the budget allocation on the education sector has underwent a drastic decline. In 2000, the budget allocation on the education sector as allotted by the government of UAE was 13% of the total budget. The budget allocation on the education sector was supposed to increase. However, this was not the case due to the decline in oil prices. It has been observed that the allocation of budget on the education had decreased to 11% of the total budget allocation. Therefore, it can be safely asserted that the education sector of UAE has encountered significant challenges over the past few years due to the decline in oil prices.

A significant decline in oil prices has been observed throughout the world in the period between 1012 to 1016. It has been observed that the price of crude oil has decreased from USD 105 to USD45 (Akoum et al. 2012). Due to the decrease in crude oil prices, the manufacturing sector saw an enhanced growth. Therefore, budget allocation skipped from the education industry to the manufacturing industry. As a direct result of this, consumption expenditure has increased and the education sector has been ignored in the above-mentioned period. On the other hand, the increase in expenditure in consumption has resulted in a decrease in investment in the education sector of IAE.  Therefore, it can be established beyond reasonable doubt that the education sector of UAE has encountered a decline in government expenditure as well as private investment (Awartani & Maghyereh, 2013). All of the above resulted in lack of technological advancement in the education sector. The education budget has encountered a cutback of around 9.9 per cent over this period.  In addition to this, lack of proper funding led to non-payment of stipends, outflow of research scholars and so on.

The impacts of decline in oil prices have been far reaching in respect of the expats and the citizens of UAE. As a result of falling oil prices the domestic production costs of UAE has seen a rapid decline. Due to this, the opportunity of doing trade has encountered significant enhancement. All of this is due to various factors. Firstly, there has been a decrease in local taxes and subsidy for the service sector businesses and education. Because of the decline in oil prices, the economy of UAE has seen a decline (Anandan, Ramaswamy & Sridhar, 2013). The government has provided subsidies to the education sector in order to continue operations. Secondly, the government has taken steps to extend the VISA of the expats in order to retain them within the country. Thirdly, the government of UAE has set up various stipends and job opportunities in order to retain the research scholars in the country in a period of economic slowdown (Creti, Ftiti & Guesmi, 2014). In addition to this, the citizens of UAE have considered the new job opportunities provided by the government as a positive initiative. The service sector saw marginal rise in the period of decline in oil prices. The government of UAE provided subsidies in order to bolster growth in the service sector during this period. Therefore, the citizens of UAE were provided with an opportunity to make profits from the service sector by the government of UAE (Aguilera & Radetzki, 2015). In addition to this, educational institutes were not levied with local taxes. All of the above was done by the government of UAE to retain expats in the country as well as provide some relief to the citizens of the country.

Impacts of Decline in Oil Prices on Education Industry in UAE

The literatures that have been consulted in this study mostly address the issues faced by UAE due to the dip in oil prices as a whole. They do not address the specific issues discussed under the purview of the study. Specific parallels have been drawn in respect of the issues that are addressed from the generalized literatures (El Anshasy & Bradley, 2012). The results have been satisfactory. It provides sufficient insight into the topic in discussion of the study. However, it leaves much to be desired.

It can be safely asserted that the fall in oil prices has had a negative impact on the education sector of UAE. This is due to diverse causes and almost all of them are primarily dependent on the decline in oil prices. A fall in oil prices brought about a decrease in the cost of production, which in turn led to a shift of public and private funding to the manufacturing sector from the education sector. As a result of this, the education sector has suffered gross negative impacts from the outflow of research scholars to the crippling of technological advancement of the education sector. On the other hand, the expats of UAE were provided with significant incentives by the government of UAE including stipends and VISA extensions. This was done in order to retain then in the country. The government of UAE also provided subsidies and cancelled local taxes to the service sector industry and the education sector (Azzam & Rettab, 2012). The UAE government did this in order to appease the citizens as well as retain the expats in the country.

H0: There is no effect of the oil prices on the expats and education system

H1: There is an effect of the oil prices on the expats and education system

Research design is the method in which a broad knowledge is narrowed down to a specific point during conduction of the research. The design of the research depends on the way following which the study has been concluded. According to Allegret, Mignon & Sallenave (2015), there are three kinds of research designs, the descriptive, explanatory and the exploratory research design. The respective research follows the descriptive research design where it has been aimed to narrow understand the topic and conduct a research over the same. It also includes concluding the research study in order to make the study specific to the topic. It includes three processes that are well interconnected with each other. The first step is to have a proper observation where it is required to view and observe the participants of the research (Mitchell & Mitchell, 2014). These views needed to be noted down in a systematic manner. Thus, an in-depth study of the factors relating to the topic is depicted in this part of the research. Eventually, descriptive research design is been used to narrow down the understating of the topic from a broad aspect towards a simple and narrow point.

Research approach is taken in order to plan the research so that the research can be conducted successfully. The approach that has been taken to conduct the study is deductive approach. The deductive approach has been taken in order to test the theory. At times new theory has been emerged from the data that has been derived from the study. Thereafter, hypothesis will be derived depending on the data recovered.

The research study has taken certain direction that has considered three variables sin the context of the study. Three variables have been considered that includes one independent variable and two dependent strategies.

When a particular issue is studied with a view of understand the various aspects that are relevant to the issue, it is found that there is more than one variable relating to the issue. Some of these variables are independent variables. This essentially means that they are not dependent on any factors that are currently under study in the present assignment (Cashin et al. 2014). They are essentially independent and other variables that are currently the topic of discussion may be dependent on these independent variables. The scenario currently under study is the impact that the recent dip in oil prices had on the education industry of UAE. In addition to this, this study intends to address the impacts that this dip in oil prices in the recent past had on the expats and the citizens of UAE. The independent variable in this case is the decline in oil prices.

When a particular event, incident, or scenario is studied in order to gain insight into the diverse aspects in respect to the scenario, it has been observed that more often than not, there exist more than one variable at play. Some of these variables are dependent variables (Sultan, 2013). This primarily means that these variables are dependent on other variable or variables that are also a part of the present study. The dependent variables considered in the study are education of the citizens. On the other hand, there has been another concern due to the increase in the oil prices in the country are that they had a negative impact on the citizens as well as the expatriates living in the country.

The independent variables considered in the study is the price of the oil that the country traders for. On the other hand the dependent variables that have been selected are the education system of the country (Kuboniwa, 2014). Thus, it has been found that the changes in oil prices have had high impacts on the education system both on the individual basis and on the national ground. The country’s economy has been badly affected by such turmoil in the economy. However, the expats those who are being a part of the nation are also affected as their business activities are being facing utter disruption.

Sample size

The sample size selected for conduction of the research is 30. It includes both the genders and the representatives of different age groups. Two economists have been considered in the study for conducting interview.

The research study has not kept any limitation towards while choosing the sample. The age group has been included in the research study (survey) between 20 and 50. Choosing between the men and the women has been done randomly. Therefore, this part of the data collection will be based on the quantitative data collection method. There have been 18 women kept included in the survey along with 12 men within the age group specified above. In addition to this, two economists have been selected to conduct the qualitative study. However, the study has also recognized collection of data from the secondary sources (Omojolaibi, 2014). The sources included are journals, books, magazines, websites, as well as articles. These are the sources that depict the already existing literature.

The sampling method used for collection o9f data on this topic is method of random sampling. Different subgroups in the education sector have been questioned regarding the newly emerged situation in the country (Moran, 2015). Moreover, in order to avoid arising of a bias situation in sampling, the data stratified random sampling has been considered. Respondents are first grouped and thereafter they are randomly selected from the population.

Data collection for the respective research has been done following both the primary as well as the secondary data collection methods. Collection of data from primary sources includes study of various books, journals, websites, magazines, and articles. Existing data has been studied with clarity. The existing represented in the literature review section of the research. On the other hand, secondary data collection method has been used. It includes collection of data from secondary sources such as survey of the respondents chosen in the above section. In order to make the survey work successful a survey questionnaire has been employed. Responses from various personals have been collected based on various structured and unstructured questions (Cashin, Mohaddes, & Raissi, 2012). The study has been based on the students that are the part of the system. Along with the same, the economists have been questioned to understand the implications of such changes in the country. Therefore, the target population for the research is primarily the students and the persons related to the sector of economy.

Q1. Do you think the education system of the country is facing challenges?

Q2. Do you think there is high implication of decrease in soil prices on the citizens?

Q3. Do you think there is high implication of decrease in soil prices on the expats?

Q4. What are the techniques that can be used to make the expats stay in the country for a longer time?

Q5. What are the possible consequences of the drop of the oil price on the citizens?

Q1. Do you think the education system of the country is facing challenges?

Options	Percentage of responses (%)	Number of respondents	Total number of respondents
Strongly disagree	6	2	30
Disagree	27	8	30
Undecided	0	0	30
Agree	40	12	30
Strongly agreed	27	8	30

The survey conducted among the students has showed a varied result during the analysis. About 27% of the total respondents have strongly agreed to the situation of effects of decrease in oil prices on the education system of UAE. On the other hand, six percent of the respondents have strongly disagreed to the situation. Moreover, forty percent of the total respondents have just agreed to the situation of emerging a challenging situation over the education system and twenty seven percent has strongly disagreed to the same.

Q2. Do you think there is high implication of decrease in oil prices on the citizens?

Options	Percentage of responses (%)	Number of respondents	Total number of respondents
Strongly disagree	0	0	30
Disagree	27	8	30
Undecided	10	3	30
Agree	30	9	30
Strongly agreed	33	10	30

On the topic of having implications of prices of oil on the inhabitants of the country that is UAE there has been a varied response from the thirty respondents of the survey. As on one hand, nobody disagreed to the point almost 30% of the respondents have agreed to the same. While 33% of the respondents strongly agreed on the topic, about 27% of the total respondents have disagreed to the situation. However, 10% of the respondents left the question unanswered.

Q3. Do you think there is high implication of decrease in soil prices on the expats?

Options	Percentage of responses (%)	Number of respondents	Total number of respondents
Strongly disagree	3	1	30
Disagree	17	5	30
Undecided	10	3	30
Agree	33	10	30
Strongly agreed	37	11	30

As per the analysis of the data that has been collected during the research study, it has been found that most of the respondents have strongly agreed to the opinion of negative implication of the decrease in oil prices on the expatriates. The percentage of the respondents strongly agreed to the same is 37. On the other hand, 3% of the respondents have strongly disagreed to this. On the other hand, while 33% agreed to this, 17% of the respondents disagreed to the five point likert scale. However, 10% of the respondents left the question unanswered.

Q4. What are the techniques that can be used to make expats stay in the country for a longer time?

While the interview considered interviewing of two economists of the country, the first question was addressed by the first economist, according to whom there are a number of ways in which measures can be taken to make it sure that the expats stay in the country for longer period of time. In the beginning the light was shed on the government activities. According to the first economist, government should include certain strategies that would help in keeping up the business of the expats in the country. Decrease of the oil price in the country should be efficiently judged. The government should tackle the situation efficiently in order to make its effect the minimum on the economic scenario. Initiatives should be taken to keep the national economy stable. However, it should also be taken care of so that the national economy is strong enough to support import and the export activities.

Q5. What are the possible consequences of the drop of the oil price on the citizens?

Conduction of the interview included interviewing the second economist who has forwarded his views on the matter of consequences of the sudden drop of oil prices in the country (Aleksandrov, Espinoza & Gyurkó, 2013). According to the second economist, the country of United Arab Emirates has been resourcing its economy from a number of trades. Although the country resources the bulging part of its economy from trading of well, there are a number of other kind of trades that the country associates with. However, it has been stated by the eminent economist that the country should use those other sources of income to keep up their economy. For this purpose, the government should take up certain strategies that would resource the economy of United Arab Emirates. However, it has also been stated that the country has sourced its economy so that there is a balance in the national economy. Thus, implications of sudden drop of the prices of oil in the country have made minimum impact on the economy of the country.

Dependent variable	Independent variable
Implication of decrease in oil price on the citizens	Challenges faced by education system
0	1
2	1
2	2
2	2
2	2
2	2
2	2
2	2
2	2
3	2
3	0
3	4
4	4
4	4
4	4
4	4
4	4
4	4
4	4
4	4
4	4
5	4
5	4
5	5
5	5
5	5
5	5
5	5
5	5
5	5
5	5

Correlation		Implication of decrease in oil price on the citizens	Challenges faced by education system
	Implication of decrease in oil price on the citizens	1
	Challenges faced by education system	0.88281734	1

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R	0.88281734
R Square	0.779366455
Adjusted R Square	0.771758402
Standard Error	0.650088524
Observations	30
ANOVA
	df	SS	MS	F	Significance F
Regression	1	43.29254953	43.29255	102.4397	5.02E-11
Residual	29	12.25583756	0.422615
Total	30	55.5483871
	Coefficients	Standard Error	t Stat	P-value	Lower 95%	Upper 95%	Lower 95.0%	Upper 95.0%
Intercept	0.758375635	0.302304203	2.508651	0.017962	0.140094	1.376657	0.140094	1.376657
Challenges faced by education system	0.825380711	0.081549299	10.12125	5.02E-11	0.658594	0.992168	0.658594	0.992168
RESIDUAL OUTPUT				PROBABILITY OUTPUT
Observation	Predicted Implication of decrease in oil price on the citizens	Residuals		Percentile	Implication of decrease in oil price on the citizens
1	1.583756345	-1.583756345		1.612903	0
2	1.583756345	0.416243655		4.83871	2
3	2.409137056	-0.409137056		8.064516	2
4	2.409137056	-0.409137056		11.29032	2
5	2.409137056	-0.409137056		14.51613	2
6	2.409137056	-0.409137056		17.74194	2
7	2.409137056	-0.409137056		20.96774	2
8	2.409137056	-0.409137056		24.19355	2
9	2.409137056	-0.409137056		27.41935	2
10	2.409137056	0.590862944		30.64516	3
11	0.758375635	2.241624365		33.87097	3
12	4.059898477	-1.059898477		37.09677	3
13	4.059898477	-0.059898477		40.32258	4
14	4.059898477	-0.059898477		43.54839	4
15	4.059898477	-0.059898477		46.77419	4
16	4.059898477	-0.059898477		50	4
17	4.059898477	-0.059898477		53.22581	4
18	4.059898477	-0.059898477		56.45161	4
19	4.059898477	-0.059898477		59.67742	4
20	4.059898477	-0.059898477		62.90323	4
21	4.059898477	-0.059898477		66.12903	4
22	4.059898477	0.940101523		69.35484	5
23	4.059898477	0.940101523		72.58065	5
24	4.885279188	0.114720812		75.80645	5
25	4.885279188	0.114720812		79.03226	5
26	4.885279188	0.114720812		82.25806	5
27	4.885279188	0.114720812		85.48387	5
28	4.885279188	0.114720812		88.70968	5
29	4.885279188	0.114720812		91.93548	5
30	4.885279188	0.114720812		95.16129	5
31	4.885279188	0.114720812		98.3871	5

 In the above analysis, the researcher has analysed the impact of decline in the oil price on the education sector of the UAE. For the statistical analysis, the researcher has considered the correlation test along with the regression analysis. In this context, the researcher has considered the impact of the decline in oil price on the education sector as the dependant variable, whereas the decline in the oil price as the independent variable.

In the above analysis, the researcher has calculated the correlation coefficient of the above two variable in the initial part. In this part, the researcher has seen that the correlation coefficient of the correlation analysis comes at 0.8828 approximately, which implies that there is a positive correlation between the decline in the oil price and the challenges in the education sector in the UAE. In other words, the researcher is to mention that the decline in the oil price would directly affect the education sector in the country.

In the next part of the analysis, the researcher has considered the regression analysis to verify the relation between the two variables as mentioned earlier. In this context, the researcher is to mention that the regression analysis reflected a multiple R value of 0.88 approximately, which suggests that the two variables are positively related as per as the statistical relation is considered (Kalaitzandonakes, Kaufman & Miller. On the other hand, the R square value of the regression test comes at 0.78 approximately, and therefore, it can be said that the two variables are statistically related at a degree of 78% approximately.  As opined by Cohen et al. (2013), the statistical relation between two variables is required to be analysed by considering the value of significant F. In this analysis, the significant F is calculated at -5.017 approximately, which is lower than the F value (Adom, 2015). Hence, the researcher is to mention that the null hypothesis is rejected and there is a relation between oil price decrease and negative effect on the education sector in the UAE.

In addition to that, the researcher is to mention that the regression test is required to be made by considering the P value. As stated by Chatterjee & Hadi (2015), P value of below 0.05 reflects a statistical significance in a regression analysis. In the present case study, the P value comes at 0.018, and therefore, it can be said that the regression test between the decline in oil price and the challenge in the education sector is statistically significant, and the government can make decision on the basis of the statistical test made by the researcher in this case study.

Data that has been recovered as an implication of the research will be very helpful in making future researchers viable and possible. There will be a huge scope of researches in future for the present as well as the future generations. Moreover, the review made about the education system in the context of the country will help in future approach of education among the students. On the other hand, the business perspectives of the businesspersons will be modified as per the current situation. Thus, future implications will be high on the ground of practicality.

The research conducted has faced certain limitations. Such as, a large number of resources are required to collect data on the topic. Therefore, there were certain implications in the study that did not make the data collection for conduction of the researches.

Moreover, the sample choosing must have been generalized at certain points making the data collection generalized. Many of the times choosing the sample have been altered due to shortage of time and money during carrying out of the project. Therefore, occasionally random respondents have been chosen for the survey questions.

Another limitation was of the time that did not allow detailed collection of data from different areas of researches. Most of the research had to conducted under shortage of time that at times became responsible

Conclusion

It can be well said that the changes in the prices of oil has greatly affected the education system and the education quality in the United Arab Emirates. In addition, the fall in the prices of oil has also resulted in the degradation of the life style and living standard of the citizens of the country and the expat residents. The quality of education has degraded to a certain limit due to much dependence of UAE economy on the income from oil sector. Still it can be said it has suffered a loss at an amount, which can be termed to be, much less than the expectations. It can be noted that if the reliance on oil can be reduced in the UAE economy, the problems arising in the economy would have been much less. If proper economic diversification can be effectively inculcated in the economy by undertaking various other manufacturing activities and service providing activities, the fluctuations in the economy could be marginalized largely.

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