The Root Cause analysis framework
The Tianjin blast case is one of the most dangerous disaster that the country of China has ever faced. This happened in the year of the 2015 in the Tianjin port of the China. The media reports stated that the blast occurred due to the storage of the dangerous chemical goods that were not properly stored (Fu, Wang & Yan, 2016). There took place three major blasts as well as several minor blasts which shook the entire china. Many people including the fire security departments’ people were also injured in the blasts. Apart from the fire in the area the blast also trigged earthquake in the area. Some experts estimated threat the blast was equivalent to blast of also most 21 tonnes of TNT blast. As of the management of the port is was very hard decision to encounter the situation. The management was not proper arrangement was not properly prepared of the plan and hence became tough to take proper actions at the time of the event. Although the organisation of the port management had some of the best risk analysis methods but at the time of this uncertain event it became tough to control the entire situation. This paper includes the key issues that lead to the event what could have been terms of proper risk assessment is a part of the paper. Also the limitations of the risk assessment methodologies have been part of the report. Pros and cons of the risk plan that must have been a part of the issue are part of the paper. Further the environmental, legal and financial issues are also a part of the paper.
Tianjin which is port city in the China which famous for the imports of goods like the car and chemicals. The blast was so enormous that it was visible by the satellites which were at the position at that time. The blast took life of more than 44 people and injuring more than 500 more. The government stated that is was one of the worst disaster in the history of china. After the blasts were over the main reason came out (Zhao, 2016). The official statement of the organisation stated that the blast occurred due to heavy storage of chemicals which were highly inflammable. A report stated that the total storage was filled of approximately 300 tons of deadly chemical were stored in the containers. Also the port had a huge storage of cars from the manufactures like the Hydai, Ikea and others which acted as a fuel to the blasts.
Some of the other reports statement defined some huge sources of lags from the management of the port. According to rules and regulations of the industry whenever there were to a new chemical coming in the storage had be reported to the fire department for better understanding of the type of the chemical (Huang & Zhang, 2015). But in this case it was seen that the fire department were not informed of a storage of Ammonium Nitrate in the containers. When the initial blasts took place the fire department of the port pour water in order to control the fire of the area. This became one of the huge mistakes and wrong decision that was taken that night as water reacts with Ammonium nitrate and potassium nitrate incises the exothermic reactions and hence incising the amount of the fire. Thus leading to the huge explosions which shook the world.
Consequences
During the blast overing many of the people around the port reported high amount of heat and smokes coming from the sites which injured many of the peoples including the fire departments people (Zhang et al 2017). The building around the port were shattered by the heat waves coming from the site, shattering the objects made of glass and melting things made of plastics. Other than this the main harm was caused to the nature as more than 700 tons of highly toxic chemicals including the sodiumcinate and the potassium dichromate were released in the air as form of smoke. Many of the citizens reported of skin rashes many days after the blasts occurred. Sodium cyanide leakage were more than the permissible limits in the sewage system which affected the water systems off the area (Li 2015). The smoke also affected the clouds as many days after the blasts acid rains covered the area crating skin disease among many peoples.
In terms of the materialistic losses the port faced a loss of more than millions of money. Aftermath the blast pictures showed huge destructions signs in the warehouse complex. The building surrounding the area were heavily destructed and were structurally damaged as declared. Many of the containers that were stored in the area were thrown apart covering huge distance due to the initial blasts (Xu & Webb, 2015). Parking lots around the area where totally destroyed, and cars from huge manufactures like the Hyundai, Kia among others destroyed summed up to be more than 12 thousands. The underground metro in the area was also damaged due to the blast and had huge recoveries to be done. Stores from more than 4 kilometres away reported losses of glass materials.
Cost benefit analysis |
||||||
Year 0 |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
|
Profit |
$0 |
$2,50,00,000 |
$2,50,00,000 |
$3,00,00,000 |
$3,00,00,000 |
$4,00,00,000 |
Decrease in expenditure |
$0 |
$10,00,000 |
$10,00,000 |
$10,00,000 |
$10,00,000 |
$10,00,000 |
Development cost |
($2,00,00,000) |
($5,00,000) |
($5,00,000) |
($5,00,000) |
($5,00,000) |
($5,00,000) |
Money Expenditure |
$0 |
($1,00,00,000) |
($1,00,00,000) |
($1,00,00,000) |
($1,00,00,000) |
($1,00,00,000) |
Annual Expenses |
$0 |
($1,50,00,000) |
($1,50,00,000) |
($1,50,00,000) |
($1,50,00,000) |
($1,50,00,000) |
Net cash flow |
($2,00,00,000) |
$5,00,000 |
$5,00,000 |
$55,00,000 |
$55,00,000 |
$1,55,00,000 |
Discount rate |
5% |
|||||
Year Index |
0 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
Discount factor |
1 |
0.95 |
0.91 |
0.86 |
0.82 |
0.78 |
Discounted flows |
||||||
Cost |
($2,00,00,000) |
($2,42,85,714) |
($2,31,29,252) |
($2,20,27,859) |
($2,09,78,913) |
($1,99,79,917) |
Benefit |
$0 |
$2,47,61,905 |
$2,35,82,766 |
$2,67,78,966 |
$2,55,03,777 |
$3,21,24,573 |
Net |
($2,00,00,000) |
$4,76,190 |
$4,53,515 |
$47,51,107 |
$45,24,864 |
$1,21,44,656 |
Cumulative |
($2,00,00,000) |
($1,95,23,810) |
($1,90,70,295) |
($1,43,19,188) |
($97,94,324) |
$23,50,331 |
Net present value |
$23,50,331 |
In order to make proper risk assessments the organization must follow a standard set of rules and regulations for the better understatement and analysis. Risk analysis can be explained as process that helps one to identify manage any potential problem or threat that might be coming (Chan 2015). The process risk assessment consist of several steps: some of the major steps that is to be taken care of are
- Identifying the Risk: Identification process is a measure of medium risk as it can affect the future plans of the risk. For any organisation identifying the risk is one of the major challenge. In this case the management must have been became conscious about the upcoming threats. It can be said that proper arrangement in any case of disaster was not proper made (Wang & Wu, 2016). Also it can be seen that standard protocols like informing the fire department about the chemicals and what reactions can they were not properly done. In order to make a proper risk assessment the organization must have chosen a right place of storage where the chemicals have been safely kept. Other than this the organisation must have reported the fire teams for the chemicals that are stored. The objective in this case is to properly analyse the risk that can hamper the regular operations of the organisation.
- Choosing the correct alternative falls under the category of the very high risk as it can impact the future work of the organisation. In case of the a scenario based risk management like that in the case of the Tianjin blast case the risk management authorities must have to choose the correct alternatives in order to make sure that all the risk assessments are done (Rose-Ackerman, 2016). Properly ensuring that all the correct alternatives are chosen ensures that the number of the risk can be reduced.
- Estimating Risk: This falls under the segment of the medium risk. Estimation of the risk is one of the other major problem for any organisation. In certain cases the amount of the risk cannot be properly estimated. Like in this the event which lead to this disastrous situation could have never have been taken into account (Liu et al 2017). But the management must have been prepared for the situations for the small impacts.
- Charting of the risk is one of the other thing that is to be properly done. Any organisation must properly note and value the amount of the risk and the hamper it can do in a certain case. This falls under the segment of the low risk
- Avoiding the risk, this is one of the major option which is connected to the identification of the risk. If the risk is properly accepted then there are chances that the risk can be avoided and hence also can be reduced. This falls under the segment of the low risk
- Risk reduction: This falls under the segment of the medium risk. Risk reduction can be explained as the process where there amount of the risk is estimated and proper steps are been taken in order to reduce the losses (Shi & Guo, 2018). In this case risk reduction can be seen after the blasts when debris of huge amount were thrown in the air the risk management team properly estimated the amount of the risk took proper steps in order to reduce the amount of the life losses and other threats.
- Risk sharing: This falls under the segment of the medium risk. This is one of the other major procedure in order to reduce the amount of a risk. Risk sharing can be explained as process where the amount of the losses are transferred to the third parties. In this the risk sharing can be explained as after the destruction the amount of the loss that is viable by the organisation is also bearable by the insurance organisation. This is one of the major example of the risk sharing and hence it is one of the major process of risk sharing.
- Risk retention: This falls under the segment of the very low risk. Risk retention are is to properly ensure that all the risk are properly estimated and costs benefits are done properly. It states all risks cannot be avoided or solved some risks many take place and hence have to be solved.
The Tianjin blast case can be explained as one of the major disaster that happened due to human errors, the major risks that came up were:
Environmental Risks: Due to the serial blasts that took place in the Tianjin port, there were a huge loss to the environment (Bessis, 2015). The chemicals that were stored in the port site were very hazardous, due the blast all the chemicals leaked into the environment casing much effect to the nature. It was observed that during the blast toxic fumes were released in the nature causing the air to get polluted. The heat waves that were released during the blasts were tremendous. Many of the people living near the port were seriously injured and had to be taken into hospitals. Other than the due to the toxic fumes that were released in the nature the area surrounding the port had acid rains (Glendon, Clarke & McKenna, 2016). These rains caused much of the skin problems. Other than this the chemical leakages got into the sewage systems and hence polluting the water bodies. The blast was so enormous that is was visible from the space and it made a huge crater at the area.
Cost Benefit Analysis
IN order to strategically control the amount of the toxic fumes and other impurities in the nature the risk management bodies had to make huge decisions make sure any one does not get harm due to the after effects of the case. The government had to temporarily relocate huge number of people in order to make them secure.
- Legal Risks: This falls under the segment of the very high risk. although the port worked in a very legal manner, but due to the blasts the organisation faced huge legal charges. This included being a threat to the country by bringing huge stores of potentially harmful chemicals (Sapri & Razak, 2016). Other than this many of the car organisation charged the port trust in terms of negligence of keeping the products. It was estimated that huge number of losses also indicted the judicial trial of financial losses.
- Financial Losses: This falls under the segment of the very high risk. The organisation of the port trust had to suffer a huge losses in terms of the financial losses. Although all the losses were not incurred by the organisation as majority of the amount were payable by the insurance organisation. But yet the organisation had to suffer major losses in terms of products, warehouse and people. Other than the financial losses the port also had to suffer losses in terms of the people (Baba & Tanaka, 2015). As many as 44 people were killed in the blasts and majority of them were the employees of the port. Thousands of cars, trucks, loaders cranes, ships and shipment units, storage containers and the ware house were compromised in the blast. Majority of the building that surrounded the port were structurally damaged and were declared unsafe to use. This was the major manmade disaster that the country of the chian had to suffer.
- HR losses: This falls under the segment of the very high risk .In terms of the losses the amount of the losses are related to the financial losses. Due to the blast the HR department had to suffer huge losses in terms of the data, computer systems assets and other such things (Nurmandi 2015). Loss of the employees are also one of the major factor. The HR department have to again restricted and all the things had to be done form the beginning in order to make the part work again.
Risk mitigation plan can be explained as the process where it states that what have to be done in case if any disaster that is executing the mitigations actions: some of the major things that the port must have to do in order to resume its normal working (Chou et al 2017). The first thing that must be done in this case in to note down the things that have been saved or can be saved after the incident have happened. The next major step is to resume the regular activity from any temporary location and hence resume the working with the remaining assets left. Proper risk contingency plan must also be executed in order to enhance the amount of the losses occurred. Other than this the organisation must ensure that all the properties must have to be ensured (Reddy, 2018). The organisation must ensure the location and restructure all the previous site in order to ensure proper working again. Proper risk management tool and risk avoidance tools also have to be used in order to rework the work. Proper techniques oft SWOT and checklist analysis must be done so that there are less chances of any errors.
Conclusion:
Thus concluding the topic it can be said that the Tianjin blast is one of the most horrific and tragic case that have ever happened in the country of the china. The government of the country stated a grief to the keens of the disease. It can be said that this incident have occurred due to the negligence of the management and due to poor risk management plan. The organization must have to ensure that proper risk management properties have to be ensured in order to reduce the amount of the further risks all the techniques of the risk management plan have to be properly ensured. The chemicals must be kept in isolated place in order to ensure that there is no further threat to the pollution across the country. Other than this the government must also ensure that huge consignments of such chemicals must not also be brought in the country. Reacting chemicals must also be keep in a safe position. Risk assessment processes must have also to be ensured properly. Further the risk must also have to properly categorize in order to ensure that there is no any loss in the further financial problems.
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