Qualitative Risk Analysis In Building And Construction Industry

Background Of The Study

Discuss about the Qualitative Risk Analysis in Building and Construction Industry.

Every project involves a lot of constituent and all of these must be consolidated for the success of it. In project management, we are able to learn that every project has to fight for its survival in three complexities (Sadhana and Shanmugapriya,  2017). The first complexity is called the structural complexity. This is generally the general scale that a task has. It is termed as the simplest complexities as there are many managers at this level who can respond to the complexity. This kind can also be seen in advance and therefore one is well prepared. The second type of complexity is the emergent complexity and this are the issues that arise from nowhere in a way that was not anticipated (Taroun, Yang and Lowe 2011). A practical example would be a sudden hike in the price of cement in a house construction. This is usually the most challenging part in any project since it demand immediate response for the survival. This is where risks fall in a project as they are unanticipated as we will see later. The last complexity that can affect a project is the socio political complexity. As the name suggests, this are just changes in the government or society that affects the project progress.

According to Majumder, Debnath and Biswas (2013) there is a need of treating different types of risk with the weight they carry. This authors states very well that all risks are not the same and therefore, there is a need of knowing where each falls. This now brings the need of coming up with a well-integrated technique that will not only focus on the risk its self but will also look to the details of the weight each of the risk carries. After identification of such a gap that exist in the industry of building and construction, this research now comes in. it aims to help contractors know the risks to pay more attention too. This will introduce a technique that will rank the risk according to their respective weights.

To be specific, this will be a proposal of a research on the analysis of qualitative risk found in the construction industry in India and in this case it will in building of a one story house with 14 rooms for a family. From the knowledge acquired in the project management studies is that this kind of a project faces a number of risk and the best of cklassifying them in a way that one can know which are the risks to be given more attention (Tüysüz and Kahraman 2006). This bring s the whole idea of qualitative analyzation. This is a good step that benefits even the entire nation as construction contributes to the economy wellbeing as the second after agriculture. Building and construction battles against risks such as delaying of the project where the agreed time between the contractor and the owner lapses causing an extension (Ceri? 2003). Another risk that is very key when a project surpasses the budget that it was allocated demanding more. This causes a strain and even at times it may hinder further progress of the project. Other risks include poor quality of the ultimate project results and lastly risk of the workers been harmed as the project is progressing (Pinto Nunes and Ribeiro). This are some of the areas that the research is expected to analyze in a qualitative manner.

Research Aims And Objectives

Aims

This research aims at doing a thorough study on some of the some of the risks that revolve in the building and construction industry. In this case, the research will be more specific to building of a one story building that has 14 rooms in totals. After going through all the identified risks, the research is expected to analyze them in a according to their degree of severity should they come to happen. This will be by the help of a well-integrated technique that will not only concentrate on the risk but will go ahead to looking where the specific risk can be ranked.

The following are some of the objectives that the whole research will focus on. The will help the research to stay in coarse until the study is complete. In other words, they are the compass to direct the whole study

• To know the different risk that the project of building tis house is facing
• To find out the hazards that motivate this risks and if any categories them into their respective groups.
• Classify the different identified risk according to the order of their severity and in a qualitative manner.

The following are the questions that the project will be seeking to answer on the topic of the qualitative risk that are facing the building and construction industry.

• What are some of the risks that the building and the construction industry is vulnerable to ( Mar?i? and Kova?evi? 2013)?
• What are the hazards that exists in the industry that will increase the probability of these risk occurring (Sadhana and Shanmugapriya 2017)?
• What effects does this risks have on the project itself and the involved parties (Taroun, Yang and Lowe 2011)?
• Are there actionable steps that can be applied in the mitigation of these risks (Ceri? 2003)?

This research will be very resourceful to the whole industry as it aims to answer some of the questions that they face on each day. It also comes to a place of been well understood as it is dealing with a project that can be related to. In the building of this house, the research starts its study from the conception of the project, the designing of the project and finally to the actual activity which is the construction. All factors are given attention too since they all have an effect to the actual results. The research positions every project manager to be in a position of avoiding the major risks that faces his/her project. One of the major impact of the various risks in the building process would be delaying in the completion of the project (Islam and Nepal 2016). This is a major problem that is faced by many contractor in most cases in India. Consequently the result of this delay are no pleasing. It at time makes the owner to incur additional cost which had not be budgeted for. The contractor can decide to rush the project and this can affect the project quality and other more problems. Another impact of these risks is the cost of the project overrunning the budgeted cost (Roghanian and Mojibian 2015). This is very dangerous as it is the reason that this is the major reason why many project starts and never comes to end. This research will however explore over this whole issue and leave the project manager at a better position of making decisions. Building is also encountered by the risk of a poor quality of the end results. Sometimes the contractors can fail to follow the right direction leading to a poorly built structure. This is dangerous as such houses are unfit for occupation which at the end of the day turns to be a waste of money (Ceri?, Mar?i? and Kova?evi?, 2013). Lastly, injuring of the workers is another major effect that a building project can face. Building usually involve some dangerous activities such as excavating deep trenches and much more. Even at times worker may fall from high places or even be injured by some of the machinery used there in. this kind of project cannot continue without human resource and therefore when one faces an accident, the whole project is affected in one way or the other (Basahel and Taylan 2016). All this impacts tends to be liability in the project progress. This research therefore gather all this impacts and other more that are not discussed so as tom help them in the analyzation of the different risks that exists

Research Questions

For the success of every research, proper tools must be applied. This one of the mechanism that ensures that the right results have been obtained and that the objectives have been met. These tools are also very vital in the answering of the research questions that are stated earlier in this report. This study will be successful in the application of the fuzzy-AHP technique (Roghanian and Mojibian 2015). This is one of the most resourceful technique in project management as it can solve a variety of programs. This can be quite challenging especially for someone encountering this technique for the first time. To begin with, this is basically an integration of two techniques and this is the fuzzy technique and the AHP technique. To start with, AHP means Analytical Hierarchy Process. It’s a method that is widely used in both academic works and for industrial purposes too. Its major function is evaluation and also the selection of items. This method, however, turns out to be a bit vague in some situation making it hard to use it the process of complex decision making (Seker and Zavadskas 2017). This now brings the importance of the second technique known as the fuzzy logic. This a unique technique as it operates on the degree of truth which is different from the known technique of false or truth. It’s more of logic. The integration of these two becomes very effective in decision making and finding alternatives.

This approach works very well in project management because of the complex decision that is supposed to be made. In our case, we are interested in analyzing risks that are associated by in building this one story 14 room’s house. This brings about the importance of making a good decision as it analyzes each risk by it weight and ranks it accordingly (Azevedo, Ensslin and Jungles 2014). It doesn’t just dismiss alternatives blindly but weights them so as to see where each falls. After the gathering of data, this approach will be used to determine the weight each risk carries. This fuzzy weight is determined by the use of linear programming. This makes this the best approach for such a case since it is not hasty in the dismissal of the risks. It first has to do the analysis so as to determine the way forward. The integration of these two techniques helps also in avoiding the flaws that are found in other single techniques. Their application will not have any assumptions at all but will consider every minor detail.

Significance And The Scope Of The Research

Qualitative risk analysis is an evaluation done on the risks facing a certain project. The main aim of this auction is to prioritize risk in the order of their likelihood of happening and also in the order of their severity (Roghanian and Mojibian 2015). This comes from the understanding that all risk cannot be classified in the same basket and that the outcome varies too.  This helps a firm to be well prepared in the event of this risks and also ensure that the project doesn’t come to a halt at any given instances. This approach risk management will require the collection of data of the possible outcome of risks together with the level of probability (Basahel and Taylan 2016). This will be in aid of the fuzzy technique which will be generating some fuzzy numbers on the same. This action becomes hard when there is no appropriate technique to back it but in this case, the fuzzy technique is a perfect match.

The data needed for this study will be collected in various ways but majorly, it will involve giving of questioners and also interviewing of several contractors. The data collection process will also extend to studying of different journals that have previously touched on the same matter. This will help the whole research to be effective (Sansakorn and 2015).

In most cases it will be evident that risk is determined by revisiting the historical data and also by how the expert will judge a certain situation. This makes the whole process to be at times to have data that is not precise, adequate or even at times it may not be certain enough (Basahel and Taylan 2016). There is also difficulties that are involved in in allocating numerical values to some hazards. This is where fuzzy-AHP comes and makes the whole process easier by introduction of some fuzzy numbers.

References

Tüysüz, F. and Kahraman, C., 2006. Project risk evaluation using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: an application to information technology projects. International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 21(6), pp.559-584.

Pinto, A., Nunes, I.L. and Ribeiro, R.A., 2010, February. Qualitative model for risk assessment in construction industry: a fuzzy logic approach. In Doctoral Conference on Computing, Electrical and Industrial Systems (pp. 105-111). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.

Sansakorn, P. and An, M., 2015. Development of Risk Assessment and Occupational Safety Management Model for Building Construction Projects. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, International Journal of Civil, Environmental, Structural, Construction and Architectural Engineering, 9(9), pp.1240-1247.

Seker, S. and Zavadskas, E.K., 2017. Application of fuzzy DEMATEL method for analyzing occupational risks on construction sites. Sustainability, 9(11), p.2083.

Taroun, A., Yang, J.B. and Lowe, D., 2011. Construction risk modelling and assessment: Insights from a literature review. The Built and Human Environment Review.

Majumder, D., Debnath, J. and Biswas, A., 2013. Risk analysis in construction sites using fuzzy reasoning and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Procedia Technology, 10, pp.604-614.

Basahel, A. and Taylan, O., 2016. Using fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS approaches for assessing safety conditions at worksites in construction industry. International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering, 6(4), pp.728-745.

De Azevedo, R.C., Ensslin, L. and Jungles, A.E., 2014. A review of risk management in construction: opportunities for improvement. Modern Economy, 5(04), p.367.

Roghanian, E. and Mojibian, F., 2015. Using fuzzy FMEA and fuzzy logic in project risk management. Iranian Journal of Management Studies, 8(3), pp.373-395.

Ceri?, A., Mar?i?, D. and Kova?evi?, M.S., 2013. Applying the analytic network process for risk assessment in sustainable ground improvement.

Islam, M.S. and Nepal, M., 2016. A Fuzzy-bayesian Model for Risk Assessment in Power Plant Projects.

Ceri?, A., 2003. A framework for process-driven risk management in construction projects.

Sadhana, C. and Shanmugapriya, S., 2017. Assessment of Risk in Construction Projects by Modified Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process.

Sohrabinejad, A. and Rahimi, M., 2015. Risk determination, prioritization, and classifying in construction project case study: gharb tehran commercial-administrative complex. Journal of Construction Engineering, 2015.

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