Commercial Launch Services: Current Innovations to Expand the Industry

By:

Prannay Kapur

Leo Mora

Matthew Elish

Madhav Kapoor

Jeffrey Lee

Tong Zhang

Table of contents

1. Background of privatization of space exploration 4 1.1 New Space Industry Development 5 1.2 Private and Public Relations in the Space Industry 6 1.3 Market Response to a Growing Satellite Industry 8 2. Development of New Space Companies 9 2.1 SpaceX Contribution to Affordable and Accessible Space Transportation 10 2.1.1 The Methodology to Becoming Reusable 12 2.1.2 The Falcon 9 13 2.2 Rocketlab’s Electron 14 2.2.1 The Structure 14 2.2.2 The Thrusters 15 2.3 Virgin Orbit’s Commercial Launch Services 16 3. Future Perspective 17

List of Figures

List of Tables

1. Background of privatization of space exploration

The vision of exploring space has been around throughout human history. Like several other US technological breakthroughs, space exploration technology emerged as a consequence of military research and production. During World War II, the benefits of long-distance rockets as weapons were realized, which led both the United States and the Soviet Union to set up missile programs. The space race persisted during the Cold War with each nation outdoing the other to advance space exploration, from Sputnik to the Apollo moon landings. Since 1993, however, NASA’s budget has never amounted to more than 1 percent of the federal budget, as opposed to the whopping 4.41 percent share of the federal budget it had in 1966. To fill the vacuum, NASA started to send orders to private companies.

After the legalization of privatized space exploration in 2004, growing numbers of corporations have entered in a new space race. Companies like SpaceX and Virgin Galactic have taken on a more prominent role in space exploration over the last years. The most-reported advantage of space transportation privatization is its cost-effectiveness. For example, while the old Space Shuttle plan costs about $4 billion a year, the current contracts for commercial resupply services cost only around $50 million a mission. Besides, with several private corporations now creating innovative space innovations, there is more rivalry for investment, which may also contribute to more rapid development in the space technology sector.

Privatized space exploration proponents often point out that the private sector also turns existing government technology into profitable or inexpensive innovations and goods for the public at large. The space industry is full of possibilities for both natural resource and travel industries. On the natural resources side, there is an endless abundance of precious metals, minerals, and carbon. Many companies have also begun low-Earth orbit technologies to allow humans to be sent into space for a small expedition. For instance, Virgin Galactic is now providing short trips into space to the public for a mere $250,000 dollars. However, the current costs for these short trips are high priced; private companies have room to improve government technology to be more cost-effective in the future. All in all, privatization of space has given these private companies an opportunity to take advantage of the current technologies and expand them to boost the economy and achieve goals that humanity has never achieved before.

1.1 New Space Industry Development

Historically, the space and aeronautical sectors have been inherently connected in the United States. This connection has largely been influenced by armed conflicts driving innovation. Peaks of innovation in aerospace industries are found in the periods of World War II and the Cold War. Following the Cold War, the 1990s experienced a major reduction in the private space sector, leaving only a handful of aerospace companies such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Raytheon left to compete (Gomes, Devezas, Beldarrain, Salgado, Melo). NASA and US policymakers have primarily focused on centralized control of the aerospace industry through government funds for defense contracts, creating private-public ties with the aforementioned Aerospace companies. With NASA’s budget being largely subject to government policy, inefficient allocation of resources and reduced competition has led to minute dramatic innovations of the space industry. As an example, in the 1960s, NASA’s budget amounted to over 0.7 percent of the GDP, but has continually fallen over the decades to less than 0.1% of the GDP (Weinzierl).

1.2 Private and Public Relations in the Space Industry

Major developments, spurring the creation of commercialized spaceflight in the 2000s and 2010s include the end of the Space Shuttle program and the increased development of satellite constellation programs. The first development is: following the space shuttle program’s end in 2011, steps toward space industry decentralization took place, with the primary goal of NASA to allow firms to be given freedom and responsibility to design specialized products at their own discretion. High risks and high barrier to entry make it seem as if privatized space companies would have a difficult time to develop, but the burden has been beared by successful entrepreneurial minds who have a personal or economic interest in commercializing space, by wealthy individuals such as Elon Musk’s SpaceX, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin, Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic and Virgin Orbit, among other entrepreneurs. NASA’s formal steps toward decentralization can be illustrated by the signing of the NASA Transition and Authorization act, which cedes the direction of future action of space exploration to commercial space providers. This leaves the economic development of space to the private sector, while allowing NASA to focus on targeted space exploration goals (Weinzierl).

Despite the increasing influence of private companies such as SpaceX, Blue Origin, or Virgin Orbit, public efforts have played a major role in the development of New Space companies. NASA has awarded private companies over $6.8 billion between 2000 and 2018 to develop equipment that can serve public or political goals, such as sending astronauts to space with American made rockets. Since American taxpayers money is being allocated toward private space companies, it is important to note the opinions of Americans. Pew Research has found that 81% of Americans are confident in private space companies making profit, and 77% believe that private space companies can build safe and reliable rockets. Of those surveyed who are most attentive to space news, 95% have expressed confidence in the ability of private space companies to produce safe and reliable spacecraft (Kennedy, Strauss). The public level of confidence in 2018 can be seen in Figure x.

[Figure x – fix later]

1.3 Market Response to a Growing Satellite Industry

The second development that set the stage for the development of private launch companies includes the projection of growth in the satellite market. Satellites are generally classified by weight size, with picosatellites weighing less than 1kg, nanosatellites weighing 1-10 kg, microsatellites weighing 10-100 kg, and small/medium satellites weighing 100-1000 kg. All satellite categories are expected to experience increased market growth in the coming years. A 10 year forecast and potential of nano and microsatellite can be observed in Figure y (Spaceworks).

[Figure y – fix later]

The New Space industry is a response to market forces and government incentives. Government incentives range from defense contracts to research challenges. For instance, the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) has sponsored a DARPA Launch competition with participants including Virgin Orbit, Vector Launch, and Astra competing. NASA lunar lander challenges have promoted Masten Space Systems and Armadillo Aerospace In addition to projects being funded by the NASA Artemis program, which seeks to return humans to the moon by 2024. Crew capsules, lunar landers, launch vehicles, and more have been developed. “New Space” is not just for rocket development. It is largely composed of American companies pursuing reusable or expendable launch services, space tourism, mining in space, lunar vehicle development, and in-space satellite propulsion mechanism (Gomes, Devezas, Beldarrain, Salgado, Melo).

2. Development of New Space Companies

A plethora of companies have risen in the past decade in response to the incentives and market forces, with some of the most influential including SpaceX and Rocket Lab, with other companies such as Virgin Orbit, Firefly Aerospace, and Blue Origin focusing on developing launch vehicles. Of the New Space companies focusing on developing orbital launch vehicles, the primary goals seem to be developing launch vehicles that are reliable, inexpensive, versatile, and reproducible to keep up with an accelerated launch cadence (Niederstrasser). Comment by Leo Anthony Mora:

One of the most important factors for New Space companies is price reduction per launch… Write traditional -> SpaceX -> Specialization by Rocketlab, Virgin Orbit, etc. Finish later (Jones).

2.1 SpaceX Contribution to Affordable and Accessible Space Transportation

Created in 2002, Space Exploration Technologies Corp., also known as SpaceX, has been at the forefront of maximizing the reusability and minimizing the cost of spacecraft since its inception. With the original goal of colonizing Mars, the company has been a pioneer in numerous facets of the privatized space industry with achievements such as being the first private liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit and the first to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station among other feats. Their research in the field of reusability, however, has been paramount in their rise to being a leader in their field. SpaceX coordinated the first reuse of both a used, orbital rocket stage and the reuse of a payload fairing in 2017 and 2019 respectively (Davenport, Clark). Reusability of this scope has not truly been seen since the days of the Space Shuttle, though by comparison the modern Falcon 9 boasts a much cheaper cost per launch of $2720/kg while the space shuttle carried a cost of $54,500/kg; a decrease by a factor of 20 (Jones).

The question then becomes what factors have driven the costs per launch to such lows in comparison to just 20 years ago. One answer is not entirely unique to SpaceX but to the commercial space industry as a whole. In an analysis conducted by NASA, several key factors that contributed to the cost efficiencies included less workers, in-house development, fewer management layers, and commercial development competition itself (Jones). Furthermore, reliability and low cost through simplicity is an essential factor in the development of their rockets with founder and CEO, Elon Musk, presenting the company position in the form of the question, “Is a Ferrari more reliable than a Toyota Corolla or a Honda Civic?” (Chaikin). By bringing simplicity to the idea of rocket science, the company has already been able to substantially reduce the cost of reaching orbit.

The next step in cost optimization comes in the innovations themselves. The average cost of a Falcon 9 rocket is currently in the range of $52 Million US Dollars, which compares similarly to the modern commercial aircraft while the fuel is roughly $200,000 per flight. What exponentially increases the costs of spaceflight is the historical fact that rockets have been used once. This is in contrast with a separate, but prevalent transport: the commercial jet. In comparison, a commercial aircraft can fly multiple times in a day and thousands of times in its lifespan (Jones). It is with this in mind that SpaceX has focused their efforts in minimizing the cost of transporting an object into orbit. If a rocket were to be reused, the only cost would be that of the fuel, which would be an overall decrease by a factor of 291. An argument to consider is while reusable, the Space Shuttle was still incredibly expensive to operate. For comparison, the Saturn V rocket in the late 1960s actually had a lower cost per flight (less than $10,000/kg) than that of the space shuttle. The main contributor of this was in complexity of the launch system itself as well as the astronomical costs of refurbishing the engines and shuttle to flight standards, which negated any real “savings” in flight costs. For SpaceX, the cost of refurbishment of a Falcon 9 for reuse was “substantially less than half’ of the cost of a newly manufactured rocket according to SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell. In line with this, once reusability in the scope that the company hopes is achieved, Musk believes a reduction of costs to $10/pound is achievable by 2025 (Jones).

Table 1. Comparison of Common Launch Vehicles, both reusable and disposable

2.1.1 The Methodology to Becoming Reusable

The technology that allows for both simplicity and reusability is vertical takeoff and landing. The space shuttle launched vertically with the shuttle attached to the body of the rocket cluster itself, creating an aerodynamic profile that was unfavorable to the overall drag when compared to a smooth, cylindrical rocket. Upon completion of its mission, the space shuttle would exit its orbit and return to the earth after a grueling trip through the atmosphere to then glide to the ground and land as any other airplane would. Where SpaceX’s method diverges is in the landing. By integrating the landing gear into the rocket itself, this allows for those negative drag effects to be avoided during flight, aiding in efficiency during that stage. Once the rocket has reached a set altitude based on the desired orbit, the second stage disengages from the boosters, beginning the return trip. Using specialized fins for stabilization, the boosters then remote land vertically onto either the ground or remote drone retrieval barges with little to no safety risk attributed. In addition to returning and reusing the boosters themselves, SpaceX has also successfully reused the payload fairings themselves, removing another sunk cost as historically, once deployed, the fairings were lost. Overall, this technology allows for the simplicity and benefits of a traditional, smooth rocket during the ascension phase while providing the reusability without detriment to overall drag or excessive refurbishment costs due to relatively complicated design such as the space shuttle.

2.1.2 The Falcon 9

With this technology, the current workhorse of SpaceX’s fleet is the world’s first reusable rocket capable of orbital flight, the Falcon 9. The vertical launch, vertical landing Falcon 9 rocket is a liquid bi-propellant rocket utilizing liquid oxygen and rocket grade kerosene as propellants. Currently capable of 7,607 kN of thrust at sea level, this rocket is able to lift in excess of 22,000 kg into low earth orbit. Capable of various configurations, this rocket also holds the ability to carry 8,300 kg to geostationary orbit, or even 4,000 kg to Mars. In line with SpaceX’s goal of versatility, the Falcon 9 is also capable of being clustered to form the Falcon Heavy; which by company claim, is the most powerful rocket ever made by a factor of two. In terms of small sat technology, this massive payload capability vastly exceeds the average weight of satellites. So in order to allow prices to be driven down, SpaceX has employed “Ridesharing.” Using an online service, companies in need of low earth orbital ferrying are able to “book a seat” on a Falcon 9 with payments starting at $1M for 200 kg ($5,000/kg) with options for additional weight as necessary. By using a specialized ported payload bay, the Falcon 9 is able to carry an assortment of different payloads at once with the ability to deploy numerous satellites in a single launch, bringing the rideshare concept to space (SpaceX). This allows for further reduction of cost per weight, however with the minimum purchase being for 200 kg, this often removes microsats from consideration.

2.2 Rocketlab’s Electron

The website of Rocketlab describes their newly revised and innovative launch vehicle by the following statement

Standing at 17 meters (55 feet and 9.3 inches) tall, with a diameter of 1.2 meters (3 feet 11.2 inches) and a lift off mass of 13,000 kg (28,600 lbs), Electron is optimized for launching 150 kg (330lbs) to a 500 km sun-synchronous orbit.

Here, giving its general outline, Rocketlab covers dimensions, load capacity, force and scope of the vehicle. From the information, Electron is only capable of carrying small payloads with a max weight of 330lbs or 250kgs, therefore, restricting the number of users and potential clients. However it has made multiple advancements and innovations, significantly changing the outlook of small payload drop offs. The following paragraphs and parts will include the considerable innovations and a brief analysis of them.

2.2.1 The Structure of Electron

The website emphasises its material science feat by stating that

Electron utilizes advanced carbon composite technologies throughout the launch vehicle structures, including all of Electron’s propellant tanks. The all carbon-composite construction of Electron decreases mass by as much as 40 percent, resulting in enhanced vehicle performance.

The use of carbon composites not only reduces an astonishing 40% of the weight but actually contributes to increasing the weight range for the payloads. Along with that, the researches made the fuel tanks, which consist of oxygen and kerosine, compatible with oxygen. On the other hand, the internal body went through specific advancements as well. Providing a sturdy base and adaption to the payload, Rocketlab’s plate is compatible to customer specifications with a lightweight honeycomb structure. For instance, the plate helped carry NASA’s ELANA mission. In the picture below it is visible that the plate is strong enough to carry multiple payloads and reliable enough for NASA to customize, having a complex five payload structure vested on the plate with adequate wiring and safety concealments.

ADD PICTURE!

2.2.2 The Thrusters of the Electron

Rocket Labs, using their home rapid prototyping and precision lab, manufacture their own thrusters unit and define it a

kick stage that can execute multiple burns to place numerous payloads into different, circularized orbits

This kick stage, as mentioned by the website, is capable of producing multiple thrusts and burn allowing the rocket to maneuver payloads into their respective orbits. The company emphasise their precision by stating

The Kick Stage additionally is equipped with a cold gas reaction control system for precision pointing, as well as its own avionics, power, and communications systems.

Here, the website discusses range and precision of the cold gas reaction control system powered by a Curie engine which has the guile to make a unique orbit for a satellite. This contraption has its own basic control, power and communication systems, providing the control station a straightforward mission completion and resilience to problems like power loss. 

2.2.3 Avionics and its testing

Compared to other commercial launch vehicles, the Electron has payload customization that may require changes in the wiring and positioning of valuable circuits. Rocketlab, providing a comfortable process for the clients, has a hardware system that is flexible to changes. Arguing for the same, Rocketlab states that

The computing nodes make use of state-of-the-art FPGA architecture, allowing massive customization of function while retaining hardware commonality.

Here, the flexibility is emphasized by a befitting and appropriate technical architecture design. Updated and honed by its software, Rocketlab tests its compatibility and avionics validation in a “sophisticated hardware-in-the-loop (HITL) test facility which allows for integrated launch vehicle and software simulation and testing.” This lab facility allows the company to be self reliant and independent as well as provide the basis of a test launch with its simulation software.

2.2.4 Rutherford Engine: Power behind the vehicle`

According to the report by Tulp and Beck, the 4900 lbf Rutherford engine is an electric turbo-pumped engine that is specifically made for Electron. According to the website the addition of the electric engine

cuts down on much of the complex turbomachinery typically required for gas generator cycle engines, meaning that the Rutherford is simpler to build than a traditional engine but still can achieve 90% efficiency.

Here, as a combustion cycle requires addition of multiple parts and thermodynamic constraints, the exclusion of it, removes the meticulous turbomachinery, making it easier to manufacture, and increases the efficiency due to better fuel to output ratios of an electrical engine. They emphasize on its innovation by mentioning that

Rutherford is the first oxygen-hydrocardbon engine to use additive manufacturing for all primary components, including the regeneratively cooled thrust chambers, injector pumps, and main propellant valves. Additive manufacturing of engine components allows for ultimate manufacturability and control.

Here, the authors expressed both innovation and extreme precision used in the manufacturing of the Electron, where they are built in an in-house lab at Rocketlab. Inclusion of additive manufacturing allows engineers to design overall cooling systems. Due to the layer by layer addition of material, the software provides vents all across the excessively heated areas during ignition, depleting thermal expansion and unwanted cracking.

2.3 Virgin Orbit’s Commercial Launch Services

Virgin Orbit was formed in 2017 and this company focuses on small satellite launch, advanced aerospace design, manufacturing and testing.The objective of the company is to open space for everyone and provide access to explode the space. For the past free year, small satellite industries had been experiencing tremendous growth, and they play an essential role to improve global connectivity. Small satellites help us broaden our horizons in space that benefit our planet.In order to satisfy the needs of customers, Virgin Orbit developed LauncherOne to provide affordable launch service. LauncherOne is a simple, expendable, launch vehicle designed to place small satellites of up to 500n kg into a wide range of Low Earth Orbits (LEO). It was carried to an altitude of approximately 35,000 feet by the 747-400 carrier aircraft.

Figure #; LauncherOne System Expanded View

Shows the Expanded View of the LauncherOne System. The LauncherOne is attached to an aircraft which can provide 327 KN vacuum thrust. Once the aircraft reaches a suitable height, LauncherOne will be released and launched in the first stage with a 1.8m diameter composite structure. On the second stage, the composite structure will be released after it burns out of power, and it will be continuously launched by 59 in 1.5 m diameter composite structure which can provide 22 KN vacuum thrust. This simple design of LauncherOne increases reliability but also keeps the cost low.

3. Future Perspective

The power of miniaturization is expected to be boosted further in the future. That involves putting higher and more capabilities in small devices. That will lead to the constellation of better and more efficient satellites in the future. A satellite with more capabilities will increase its effectiveness. The technology is also being used in lowering the costs used for production. In the future, many companies will use the technology to provide global communications and broadband via space.

The issue of sustainability in space is expected to rise more in the future. Considering the expected increase in the number of people visiting space, better and more effective sustainability measures will have to be devised. There is no nationally owned sector in space, thus the responsibility is global. One challenge is the accumulation of debris in space. Several old satellites and space vehicles have contributed to the accumulation of debris in space. In the future, countries will be expected to come up with strategies that will ensure sustainability in the space. Most launch vehicles are not reusable. Private companies are investing heavily to come up with reusable launch vehicles. That will reduce the cost of sustainability and it will also increase space access.

Human spaceflight is expected to grow over the years. More commercial companies are investing heavily in human spaceflight. Such companies aim to earn revenues from Earth orbit and beyond. Thus, they are ramping up their spaceflight capabilities. One of the fields that will be developed in the future with an increase in human spaceflights is tourism. In the future the growth in space tourism is expected to grow at a high rate. Space tourism includes orbital, lunar, and suborbital tourism. Orbital flights are launched at a speed that is high enough to enable them to make at least an orbit. Orbital tourism will revolve around people going to tour to space. On the other hand, suborbital flights do not go to orbit but they go to space and back to Earth. It is estimated that millions of people in the world will have visited space by 2060. For example, Virgin Galactic announced its intention in taking tourists on suborbital joyrides. Orbital tourism has only been done by Roscosmos, a Russian space agency. Private companies investing in human spaceflight are showing the intention of introducing orbital tourism. SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are among the private companies that have shown interest in taking part in orbital tourism in the future. Currently, only a few people have visited the International Space Station. Some organizations such as SpaceX target taking people to Mars soon. Elon Musk announced that the Starship will be ready to visit Mars by 2022 and later take Yusaku Maezawa to the moon together with his crew. Due to the high risk associated with space travel, countries such as the US have come up with laws that will protect the travelers and companies once space tourism booms.

NASA is investing heavily in the future of human spaceflight. NASA has made investments such as building the Orion multi-purpose crew vehicle, Space launch system, and advanced exploration systems. Such is expected to be a big stepping stone in the rise of human spaceflight. The Orion spacecraft has been built with special features that will enable safe human spaceflight (Garrett-Bakelman, Darshi, & Piening, 2019). The space vehicle will carry the crew to space, provide safe re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere, provide safe re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere, sustain the crew during space travel, and provide emergency abort capabilities. The space vehicle is expected to be launched in NASA’s Space launch system, the most powerful rocket. The advanced exploration systems have projected further into the future of human spaceflight. The advanced exploration systems will help come up with new approaches to developing prototype systems. They will also be used in demonstrating key capabilities, and validating operational concepts. All that will be significant in the future human missions that will be beyond the low-Earth orbit. Currently, the few people that have traveled into space have only reached the low-Earth orbit where the International Space Station is located.

With more private companies emerging, the cost of visiting space will gradually decrease. That will pave the way for affordable space travel in the future. Manufacturing space ships that are effective is very challenging. However, due to the expertise and technology that has been adopted by the private sector, more effective space vehicles will be manufactured in the future. However, the private companies will need the guidance of NASA as it has been in the field for a long time. That will increase the number of people visiting space significantly. NASA set an objective of colonizing mass by 2027. Today’s technological standards are still far from achieving the technology needed to go to Mars and back. Powerful vehicles that can travel for six months to Mars must be developed. Such objectives will also lead to advancements in technology such that astronauts can report back to Earth effectively (DiMaria, 2018). Therefore, better and more effective systems that will facilitate space travel are expected to be innovated and implemented.

More commercial opportunities are expected to be realized. Shackleton Energy Company has thought of an opportunity of selling propellant in low-Earth orbit. Mining asteroids for precious metals is another commercial opportunity that is expected to grow in the future. Some companies are also researching how the moon’s ample water stores can be used to produce rocket fuel. Such fuel will be sold to spaceships at orbiting filling stations.

It is expected that in the future in-orbit factories will be made. That will allow some items to be made in space and then sold on Earth. However, the main challenge will be the lack of gravity in space. It will not support convection thus messing up with heat transfers. However, some items have proved to be effective when they are made in such an environment. An example is ZBLAN fiber which is used for communication. It is potentially more effective compared to silica-based fibers, which are currently used on the internet and by telecom industries. When the ZBLAN fibers are manufactured on Earth, the convection induces microcrystals to form thus making it less cloudy and less efficient. According to an experiment conducted by a fiber manufacturing company, Thorlabs, ZBLAN fibers can be manufactured effectively in space. Due to a lack of convection in space, the ZBLAN fibers will be very effective. If the project is successful, it will be the first product to be manufactured in space. That will encourage the manufacture of more products in space (Weber Martins, Pereira & Schilling, 2018, October). Space science is expected to continue making great advances in the future. Activities such as showing signs of organic materials and identifying resources in the solar system will continuously be explored.

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